Saturday 14 November: 361 over/under 2.5 tips on the board, with an average chance of 63%. Strongest: Tourcoing vs Reims, Over 2.5 goals at 79%. Settled so far today: 1 won · 5 lost.
The headline goals line, decided by the total goals we expect from both teams. Sorted by probability; tap a match for its score grid.
Coupe De France
Highest probability 
Tourcoingvs
ReimsTourcoing 1.18 + Reims 3.04 = 4.22 goals expected. 79% on our numbers. Reims lost last time out (LWD). At 1.18 the price is under fair (1.26) – better as part of a slip than alone.
Match pageCoupe De France
No. 2 
Stade Béthunoisvs
NancyStade Béthunois 1.13 + Nancy 3.09 = 4.22 goals expected. 79% on our numbers. A short price: 1.18 against fair odds of 1.26.
Match page
Belgium U19vs
Kazakhstan U194.23 goals expected – well over 2.5. We make it 80%. At 1.15 the price is under fair (1.25) – better as part of a slip than alone.
Match page
Denmark U19vs
San Marino U19Denmark U19 3.06 + San Marino U19 1.07 = 4.13 goals expected. Chance 79%. A short price: 1.17 against fair odds of 1.27.
Match page
NigeriaNPFLxG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV
KenyaFKF Premier LeaguexG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EVFranceCoupe De FrancexG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV
AustraliaAustralian ChampionshipxG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV
JapanJ3 LeaguexG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV
Hong-KongLeague CupxG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV
South-AfricaDiski ChallengexG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV
Czech-Republic3. Liga CFL AxG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EVCzech-Republic3. Liga CFL BxG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV
Turkey2. LigxG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV
RussiaSupreme Division WomenxG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EVCzech-Republic1. Liga U19xG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV
UkraineDruha LigaxG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV
PolandIII Liga Group 1xG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EVPolandIII Liga Group 3xG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV
RomaniaLiga III Serie 3xG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV
MexicoLiga Premier Serie AxG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV
New-ZealandNational League NationalxG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV
EnglandLeague OnexG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EVEnglandLeague TwoxG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EVSaturday 14 November: 361 tips with an average chance of 63%. The strongest still to play: Tourcoing vs Reims (Coupe De France) – Over 2.5 goals, 79%. Most tips come from England FA Trophy (31), Europe UEFA U19 Championship Qualification (20), England National League (10). 26 of them are priced above our fair odds.
Over/under 2.5 goals is the main goals market: three or more for the over, two or fewer for the under. Our figure combines our score table with the bookmakers' own goal line.
Over pays on 2–1, 3–0 and higher; under pays on 0–0, 1–0, 1–1 and 2–0.
An expected total of about 3.0 or more usually pushes the over past 55%; about 2.2 or less favours the under. In between, there may be no strong lean either way.
Each team's expected goals combine our attack and defence ratings, a statistical goals feed and the total implied by the bookmakers' goal line. From those two figures we give every scoreline a chance, and every market is built from the same table – which is why the result, goals and BTTS tips for one match never contradict each other. Fair odds are 1 ÷ chance; any price above them is marked as value. The whole process is on how it works, and the full tables are on score grids.
Prefer combinations? See accumulator bets, the banker of the day or all markets.
Over 2.5 wins with three or more goals; under 2.5 wins with two or fewer. It is the most popular goals market in the world, priced close to even in many games, and it rewards punters who read styles and scoring rates rather than just who is the better team.
Our tips start with the goals we expect from each side. Add them together and you have the expected total – the single most useful number for this market. A total of 3.0 or more usually tips the over; 2.2 or less usually tips the under. That figure is then blended with the total implied by the bookmakers' own over/under price, because markets pick up team news that our ratings cannot see.
Unders are less popular, which means they are sometimes priced more generously. Do not let the excitement of goals decide the side for you.
Over 2.5 rates differ hugely between competitions – some top leagues see three goals in well over half their games, others in barely 40%. Check the rate on league statistics before you bet, and compare it with the expected total for the match.
If the over looks right but you want a cushion, over 1.5 wins with one goal fewer at a shorter price. If the under looks right, under 3.5 on the over 3.5 page gives an extra goal of room.
All goals in normal time count, own goals included; disallowed goals and extra time do not. Every tip lands in the prediction archive. 18+.
We expect 1.6 goals from the home side and 1.3 from the visitors: a total of 2.9. From the score table, over 2.5 lands about 55% of the time; fair odds 1.82. The bookmaker offers 1.95 on the over and 1.90 on the under. Over: 0.55 × 1.95 − 1 = +0.07. Under: 0.45 × 1.90 − 1 = −0.145. The over is the value side. Now suppose the league's over 2.5 rate is only 41% – check whether either team has a reason to play more cautiously than usual before trusting the edge.
What happens if the match is abandoned at 3–0? Over 2.5 is usually settled as a winner because the result was already decided; under 2.5 would be void or lost depending on the bookmaker.
Why is it called 2.5? The half goal means there can never be a refund – the total is always either over or under.
Two goals or fewer in total.
Roughly 3.0 or more expected goals between the two teams.
We estimate the goals each team should score from its attack and defence ratings and the bookmakers' prices, give every possible score a chance, and add up the scores that win the over/under 2.5 bet. Tips are listed from the highest chance down.
How often a tip like this should win. At 70%, expect roughly seven winners and three losers from every ten.
On the Yesterday tab and in the prediction archive – every tip is settled on the 90-minute score and kept.
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