- λ home
- 1.51
- λ away
- 1.63
- Σλ total
- 3.14
- P(over 2.5)
- 61%
- P(BTTS)
- 66%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.7%
Benátky nad Jizerou vs Mladá Boleslav II prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Benátky nad Jizerou v Mladá Boleslav II: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Benátky nad Jizerou v Mladá Boleslav II are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (23 and 28 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benátky nad Jizerou (home) | 1.84 | 1.07 | 0.72 | 1.42 |
| Mladá Boleslav II (away) | 1.48 | 1.29 | 0.72 | 1.39 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.84 × 1.07 × 0.72 ≈ 1.42
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.80 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.14 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.14 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.14 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.51, λaway = 1.63
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 35.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 40.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Benátky nad Jizerou | 37.4% | 37.0% | 37.4% | 37.2% |
| X Draw | 26.5% | 17.0% | 25.6% | 20.6% |
| 2 Mladá Boleslav II | 36.1% | 46.0% | 37.0% | 42.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Benátky nad Jizerou | 37.2% | 2.69 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -11.5% | |
| X · Draw | 20.6% | 4.85 | 3.48 | 28.7% | -28.3% | |
| 2 · Mladá Boleslav II | 42.2% | 2.37 | 2.41 | 41.5% | +1.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 57.8% | 1.73 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -17.9% | |
| X2 | 62.8% | 1.59 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -10.2% | |
| 12 | 79.4% | 1.26 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -4.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Benátky nad Jizerou | 46.8% | 2.14 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Mladá Boleslav II | 53.2% | 1.88 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 81.2% | 1.23 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -8.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 18.8% | 5.31 | 4.60 | 21.7% | -13.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60.7% | 1.65 | 1.49 | 67.1% | -9.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 39.3% | 2.54 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -9.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 39.4% | 2.54 | 2.27 | 44.1% | -10.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 60.6% | 1.65 | 1.54 | 64.9% | -6.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 66.3% | 1.51 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -4.6% | |
| BTTS no | 33.7% | 2.96 | 2.47 | 40.5% | -16.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 29.1% | 3.43 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.6% | 2.59 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 32.2% | 3.10 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.663 × 1.44 − 1 = -0.046 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Benátky nad Jizerou | Mladá Boleslav II |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDDDDW | DWWWWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-4-0 | 4-2-0 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Benátky nad Jizerou 37%, draw 21%, Mladá Boleslav II 42%. Standings: Benátky nad Jizerou 6th on 44, Mladá Boleslav II 9th on 38.
Form
Benátky nad Jizerou, last six: W D D D D W – two wins in total. Latest: 3–2 away at Jablonec II. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Mladá Boleslav II, last six: D W W W W D – four wins in total. Latest: 2–2 at home to Pardubice II. 2.5 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Benátky nad Jizerou 1.51 · Mladá Boleslav II 1.63 · total 3.14. Goals expected – 61% for over 2.5 and 66% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 66%, odds 1.44 v fair 1.51. Most probable score: Benátky nad Jizerou 1–2 Mladá Boleslav II. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
3. Liga CFL B table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal Česká Lípa | 32 | +62 | 88 |
| 2 |  Sokol Zápy | 32 | +45 | 74 |
| 3 |  Baník Souš | 32 | +26 | 64 |
| 4 |  Hradec Králové II | 32 | +23 | 61 |
| 5 |  Teplice II | 32 | +4 | 50 |
| 6 |  Benátky nad Jizerou | 32 | +5 | 44 |
| 7 |  Pardubice II | 32 | +12 | 43 |
| 8 |  Jablonec II | 32 | -13 | 39 |
| 9 |  Mladá Boleslav II | 32 | -11 | 38 |
| 10 |  Slovan Liberec II | 32 | +8 | 37 |
| 11 |  Varnsdorf | 32 | -19 | 37 |
| 12 |  Neratovice-Byškovice | 32 | -22 | 36 |
| 13 |  Sokol Brozany | 32 | -20 | 34 |
| 14 |  Velké Hamry | 32 | -12 | 31 |
| 15 |  Ústí nad Orlicí | 32 | -20 | 31 |
| 16 |  Slovan Velvary | 32 | -36 | 25 |
| 17 |  Kolín | 32 | -32 | 24 |
More 3. Liga CFL B predictions
League page →
Horní Ředice1
Chrudim0Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Benátky nad Jizerou vs Mladá Boleslav II?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 66, priced around 1.44 by the bookmakers.
What are the Benátky nad Jizerou v Mladá Boleslav II probabilities?
Benátky nad Jizerou win 37%, draw 21%, Mladá Boleslav II win 42%.
What is the most probable score for Benátky nad Jizerou vs Mladá Boleslav II?
Benátky nad Jizerou 1–2 Mladá Boleslav II is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Benátky nad Jizerou vs Mladá Boleslav II?
Benátky nad Jizerou 1.51, Mladá Boleslav II 1.63 – over 2.5 at 61%, BTTS at 66%.
What time is Benátky nad Jizerou vs Mladá Boleslav II?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 14:00 WAT – 3. Liga CFL B.