ROI calculator
Three calculators in one: how your bets have really done, what a strategy should earn over time, and how often any price needs to win.
1 · Your results
- Profit
- –
- ROI
- –
- Average stake
- –
- Profit per bet
- –
2 · A strategy
- Expected profit
- –
- Expected ROI
- –
- Break-even hit rate
- –
- Edge per bet
- –
3 · Price check
- Implied probability
- –
- Fair odds
- –
- Expected value
- –
- Verdict
- –
Break-even hit rates
| Odds | Break-even | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.30 | 76.9% | 2.20 | 45.5% |
| 1.50 | 66.7% | 2.50 | 40.0% |
| 1.70 | 58.8% | 3.00 | 33.3% |
| 1.90 | 52.6% | 3.50 | 28.6% |
| 2.00 | 50.0% | 4.00 | 25.0% |
Profit, ROI and yield, simply
Profit is everything you got back minus everything you staked. ROI is that profit divided by the total staked, so a ₦500-a-bet punter and a ₦50,000-a-bet punter can be compared fairly. Some people call it yield – either way it answers one question: what do I earn for every naira I stake?
The strategy calculator shows how much the price matters: at average odds of 1.85 you must win 54.1% of your bets just to stand still. The market profit table runs this exact test on every market we tip, and value bets lists prices where our chance beats the one the odds suggest.
ROI calculator: know your real betting results
Most punters remember their wins and forget their losses. The ROI calculator turns your betting into three honest numbers: profit, return on investment (ROI) and the hit rate you need to break even at your average odds. It takes ten seconds and tells you more than a month of memories.
The three numbers that matter
- Profit: total returns minus total stakes.
- ROI: profit divided by total stakes. A 5% ROI means you make 5 for every 100 staked over time – an excellent result in football betting.
- Break-even hit rate: 1 divided by your average odds. At average odds of 1.80 you need to win 55.6% of bets just to stand still.
Why ROI beats hit rate
Two punters can win 60% of their bets and finish in very different places. At average odds of 1.50, 60% loses money; at 1.90, it makes a healthy profit. ROI captures both how often you win and what you win, which is why it is the measure professionals use – and why our market profit table uses it too.
What is a realistic target?
Over hundreds of bets, staying close to break-even is already better than most punters manage, because bookmaker margins work against you on every bet. A steady positive ROI of a few per cent is a genuinely good result. Anyone promising 30% or more every month is selling something.
Make it a habit
Run the numbers monthly, not after every bet. Log stakes and results in the bankroll tracker, then bring the totals here. If your ROI is negative over several months, look at your average odds and your markets before looking for new tips – the Strategy Academy can help. 18+.
Worked example: same hit rate, different results
Punter A places 200 bets at average odds of 1.60 and wins 62%: returns 124 × 1.60 = 198.4 units from 200 staked, ROI −0.8%. Punter B places 200 bets at average odds of 2.10 and wins 50%: returns 100 × 2.10 = 210 units, ROI +5%. Punter A wins more often and loses money; Punter B wins half the time and makes a profit. Their break-even hit rates were 62.5% and 47.6% respectively – which is exactly what the calculator shows you before you even look at your results.
ROI checklist
- Know your average odds.
- Compare your hit rate with the break-even rate.
- Judge over hundreds of bets.
Quick answers
What counts as a good ROI? Over hundreds of bets, any steady positive figure is good; a few per cent is excellent.
Should I include free bets? Record them separately, or your ROI will look better than your real betting.
Should accumulators be counted separately? Yes – their ROI often looks very different from singles, and mixing them hides the difference.
How many bets before ROI means something? At least a few hundred; fewer than that and luck dominates.
What average odds should I aim for? There is no ideal figure – what matters is that your hit rate stays above 1 ÷ your average odds over time.
Frequently asked questions
What does ROI mean in betting?
Return on investment – your profit as a percentage of everything you staked. Stake ₦100,000 in total, finish ₦6,000 ahead, and your ROI is 6%.
Is 5% ROI a good result?
Across hundreds of bets, very good – most punters never beat the bookmaker margin. Across twenty bets it tells you almost nothing, because luck rules small samples.
What is a break-even hit rate?
How often you must win at a given price just to finish level: 1 ÷ odds. That is 50% at 2.00 and 66.7% at 1.50.
What is expected value?
What a bet earns on average if repeated many times: (chance × odds) − 1. A positive number means the odds pay more than the true chance deserves.