- λ home
- 2.29
- λ away
- 1.12
- Σλ total
- 3.41
- P(over 2.5)
- 64%
- P(BTTS)
- 64%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.7%
Ried vs First Vienna prediction & xG model: Ried to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Ried 66% · draw 14% · First Vienna 20%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Ried v First Vienna: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Ried v First Vienna are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.63 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.23 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.41 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.29, λaway = 1.12
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 63.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 17.4%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.7%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Ried | – | 75.0% | 53.4% | 65.9% |
| X Draw | – | 8.0% | 22.9% | 14.2% |
| 2 First Vienna | – | 17.0% | 23.7% | 19.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Ried pick | 65.9% | 1.52 | 1.67 | 59.9% | +10.1% | |
| X · Draw | 14.2% | 7.02 | 3.90 | 25.6% | -44.4% | |
| 2 · First Vienna | 19.8% | 5.04 | 3.76 | 26.6% | -25.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 80.2% | 1.25 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -6.2% | |
| X2 | 34.1% | 2.94 | 1.92 | 52.1% | -34.6% | |
| 12 | 85.8% | 1.17 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -0.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Ried | 76.9% | 1.30 | – | – | – | |
| DNB First Vienna | 23.1% | 4.33 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 85.5% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 14.5% | 6.88 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 64.5% | 1.55 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -7.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 35.5% | 2.82 | 2.42 | 41.3% | -14.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 42.9% | 2.33 | 2.22 | 45.0% | -4.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 57.1% | 1.75 | 1.56 | 64.1% | -10.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 64.2% | 1.56 | 1.47 | 68.0% | -5.6% | |
| BTTS no | 35.8% | 2.79 | 2.39 | 41.8% | -14.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 47.4% | 2.11 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 34.8% | 2.87 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.8% | 5.63 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.659 × 1.67 − 1 = +0.101 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.151 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Ried | First Vienna |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDDDWW | DLLWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-3-1 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 2.17 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 2.17 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% |
| BTTS | 100% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Ried 66% to win.
Form
Sequence for Ried: L D D D W W, so two victories in six. Latest: 2–4 at home to Lask Linz. 2.2 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
First Vienna, last six: D L L W W W – three wins in total. Latest: 1–1 away at Austria Vienna (Am). Per match: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Ried 2.29 · First Vienna 1.12 · total 3.41. Goals expected – 64% for over 2.5 and 64% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Ried to win, probability 66%, odds 1.67 v fair 1.52. Most probable score: Ried 2–1 First Vienna. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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FC KharkivFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Ried vs First Vienna?
The Model pick is Ried to win with a model probability of 66, priced around 1.67 by the bookmakers.
What are the Ried v First Vienna probabilities?
Ried win 66%, draw 14%, First Vienna win 20%.
What is the most probable score for Ried vs First Vienna?
Ried 2–1 First Vienna is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Ried vs First Vienna?
Ried 2.29, First Vienna 1.12 – over 2.5 at 64%, BTTS at 64%.
What time is Ried vs First Vienna?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 14:00 WAT – Friendlies Clubs.