- λ home
- 1.86
- λ away
- 0.93
- Σλ total
- 2.79
- P(over 2.5)
- 54%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–0 11.5%
Novi Pazar vs Otrant-Olympic prediction & xG model: Novi Pazar to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Novi Pazar v Otrant-Olympic: how the Arena called it
- Full time
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- 0 / 0
- Arena tipNovi Pazar to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
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How the numbers for Novi Pazar v Otrant-Olympic are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (28 and 29 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novi Pazar (home) | 1.66 | 0.90 | 0.95 | 1.42 |
| Otrant-Olympic (away) | 1.38 | 1.22 | 0.75 | 1.26 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.90 × 0.95 ≈ 1.42
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.67 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.69 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.87 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.79 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.86, λaway = 0.93
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 59.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 18.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 11.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Novi Pazar | 40.0% | 66.0% | 49.7% | 59.2% |
| X Draw | 27.1% | 20.0% | 26.6% | 22.8% |
| 2 Otrant-Olympic | 32.8% | 14.0% | 23.7% | 18.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.076 → 7.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Novi Pazar pick | 59.2% | 1.69 | 1.87 | 53.5% | +10.6% | |
| X · Draw | 22.8% | 4.39 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -20.4% | |
| 2 · Otrant-Olympic | 18.1% | 5.53 | 3.92 | 25.5% | -29.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 81.9% | 1.22 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -0.9% | |
| X2 | 40.8% | 2.45 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -25.3% | |
| 12 | 77.2% | 1.29 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -2.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Novi Pazar | 76.6% | 1.31 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Otrant-Olympic | 23.4% | 4.27 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 77.3% | 1.29 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -8.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.7% | 4.40 | 4.18 | 23.9% | -4.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53.7% | 1.86 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -8.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.3% | 2.16 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -5.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 32.5% | 3.08 | 2.69 | 37.2% | -12.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 67.5% | 1.48 | 1.41 | 70.9% | -4.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 58.2% | 1.72 | 1.59 | 62.9% | -7.4% | |
| BTTS no | 41.8% | 2.39 | 2.17 | 46.1% | -9.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 42.9% | 2.33 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.0% | 2.50 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.2% | 5.83 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.592 × 1.87 − 1 = +0.106 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.122 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Novi Pazar | Otrant-Olympic |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWWLL | WWLDWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-3 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Novi Pazar ahead at 59%, against 18% for Otrant-Olympic and 23% for the draw.
Form
Novi Pazar have three wins from their last six (W L W W L L). Latest: 2–0 at home to Mladost Lucani. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Sequence for Otrant-Olympic: W W L D W L, so three victories in six. Latest: 4–1 away at Buducnost Podgorica. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.7 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Novi Pazar 1.86 · Otrant-Olympic 0.93 · total 2.79. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 54%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Novi Pazar to win, probability 59%, odds 1.87 v fair 1.69. Most probable score: Novi Pazar 1–0 Otrant-Olympic. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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First Vienna2Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Novi Pazar vs Otrant-Olympic?
The Model pick is Novi Pazar to win with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.87 by the bookmakers.
What are the Novi Pazar v Otrant-Olympic probabilities?
Novi Pazar win 59%, draw 23%, Otrant-Olympic win 18%.
What is the most probable score for Novi Pazar vs Otrant-Olympic?
Novi Pazar 1–0 Otrant-Olympic is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Novi Pazar vs Otrant-Olympic?
Novi Pazar 1.86, Otrant-Olympic 0.93 – over 2.5 at 54%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Novi Pazar vs Otrant-Olympic?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 13:00 WAT – Friendlies Clubs.