- λ home
- 2.35
- λ away
- 1.09
- Σλ total
- 3.44
- P(over 2.5)
- 63%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.7%
CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: CSKA Moscow 65% · draw 19% · Arsenal Tula 16%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
CSKA Moscow v Arsenal Tula: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for CSKA Moscow v Arsenal Tula are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.92 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.03 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.44 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.35, λaway = 1.09
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 65.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 18.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 16.1%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.7%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 CSKA Moscow | – | 62.0% | 69.9% | 65.3% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 19.4% | 18.6% |
| 2 Arsenal Tula | – | 20.0% | 10.7% | 16.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.075 → 7.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · CSKA Moscow | 65.3% | 1.53 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -13.1% | |
| X · Draw | 18.6% | 5.38 | 4.80 | 20.8% | -10.8% | |
| 2 · Arsenal Tula | 16.1% | 6.21 | 8.70 | 11.5% | +40.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 83.9% | 1.19 | 1.04 | 96.2% | -12.7% | |
| X2 | 34.7% | 2.88 | 3.10 | 32.3% | +7.5% | |
| 12 | 81.4% | 1.23 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -5.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB CSKA Moscow | 80.2% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Arsenal Tula | 19.8% | 5.06 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 82.7% | 1.21 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -5.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 17.3% | 5.77 | 4.45 | 22.5% | -22.9% | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 62.6% | 1.60 | 1.60 | 62.5% | +0.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 37.4% | 2.67 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -15.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 41.5% | 2.41 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -1.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 58.5% | 1.71 | 1.46 | 68.5% | -14.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 55.4% | 1.81 | 1.87 | 53.5% | +3.6% | |
| BTTS no | 44.6% | 2.24 | 1.81 | 55.2% | -19.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 48.7% | 2.05 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 34.4% | 2.91 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 16.9% | 5.92 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.626 × 1.60 − 1 = +0.001 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.002 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.1% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | CSKA Moscow | Arsenal Tula |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDWWLW | LLWLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 2.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 83% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – CSKA Moscow 65% to win.
Form
CSKA Moscow have three wins from their last six (L D W W L W). Latest: 2–4 away at FC Krasnodar. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Arsenal Tula have two wins from their last six (L L W L W L). Latest: 1–2 at home to Chelyabinsk. Per match: 1.5 scored, 2.7 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Previous 2: CSKA Moscow 1, Arsenal Tula 0, drawn 1, 3.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Oct 2026): CSKA Moscow 3–1 Arsenal Tula. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG CSKA Moscow 2.35 · Arsenal Tula 1.09 · total 3.44. Goals expected – 63% for over 2.5 and 55% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 63%, odds 1.60 v fair 1.60. Most probable score: CSKA Moscow 2–1 Arsenal Tula. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 4 Oct 2026CSKA Moscow3–1Arsenal Tula
- 4 Jul 2026CSKA Moscow1–1Arsenal Tula
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First ViennaFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.60 by the bookmakers.
What are the CSKA Moscow v Arsenal Tula probabilities?
CSKA Moscow win 65%, draw 19%, Arsenal Tula win 16%.
What is the most probable score for CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula?
CSKA Moscow 2–1 Arsenal Tula is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula?
CSKA Moscow 2.35, Arsenal Tula 1.09 – over 2.5 at 63%, BTTS at 55%.
What time is CSKA Moscow vs Arsenal Tula?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 12:00 WAT – Friendlies Clubs.