- λ home
- 1.18
- λ away
- 2.02
- Σλ total
- 3.20
- P(over 2.5)
- 62%
- P(BTTS)
- 63%
- Modal score
- 1–2 9.8%
Příbram II vs Motorlet Praha prediction & xG model: Motorlet Praha to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Příbram II v Motorlet Praha: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipMotorlet Praha to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Příbram II v Motorlet Praha are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (29 and 30 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Příbram II (home) | 1.95 | 0.82 | 0.70 | 1.12 |
| Motorlet Praha (away) | 1.59 | 0.95 | 1.05 | 1.58 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.95 × 0.82 × 0.70 ≈ 1.12
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.70 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.21 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.20 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.20 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.18, λaway = 2.02
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 21.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 56.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 9.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Příbram II | 26.4% | 17.0% | 28.4% | 21.8% |
| X Draw | 26.2% | 19.0% | 24.5% | 21.3% |
| 2 Motorlet Praha | 47.3% | 64.0% | 47.1% | 56.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Příbram II | 21.8% | 4.59 | 3.14 | 31.8% | -31.6% | |
| X · Draw | 21.3% | 4.69 | 3.64 | 27.5% | -22.5% | |
| 2 · Motorlet Praha pick | 56.9% | 1.76 | 1.89 | 52.9% | +7.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 43.1% | 2.32 | 1.69 | 59.2% | -27.2% | |
| X2 | 78.2% | 1.28 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -2.2% | |
| 12 | 78.7% | 1.27 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -7.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Příbram II | 27.7% | 3.61 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Motorlet Praha | 72.3% | 1.38 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 82.5% | 1.21 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -9.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 17.5% | 5.72 | 5.05 | 19.8% | -11.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62.0% | 1.61 | 1.46 | 68.5% | -9.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 38.0% | 2.63 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -9.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 40.6% | 2.47 | 2.22 | 45.0% | -10.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 59.4% | 1.68 | 1.56 | 64.1% | -7.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 62.9% | 1.59 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -10.0% | |
| BTTS no | 37.1% | 2.70 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -7.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 20.4% | 4.90 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.1% | 2.70 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 42.5% | 2.35 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.569 × 1.89 − 1 = +0.076 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.085 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Příbram II | Motorlet Praha |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLWDD | WLWDLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-3-2 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 57% against 22%. Standings: Příbram II 11th on 40, Motorlet Praha 14th on 34.
Form
Příbram II, last six: L D L W D D – one win in total. Latest: 0–5 away at Králův Dvůr. Per match: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded.
Sequence for Motorlet Praha: W L W D L W, so three victories in six. Latest: 3–0 at home to Admira Praha. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (May 2026): Příbram II 1–0 Motorlet Praha. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Příbram II 1.18 · Motorlet Praha 2.02 · total 3.20. High total: over 2.5 62%, BTTS 63%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Motorlet Praha to win, probability 57%, odds 1.89 v fair 1.76. Most probable score: Příbram II 1–2 Motorlet Praha. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 17 May 2026Příbram II1–0Motorlet Praha
3. Liga CFL A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kladno | 32 | +58 | 72 |
| 2 |  Jiskra Domažlice | 32 | +38 | 69 |
| 3 |  Viktoria Plzeň II | 32 | +22 | 61 |
| 4 |  Písek | 32 | +12 | 52 |
| 5 |  Králův Dvůr | 32 | +3 | 49 |
| 6 |  Admira Praha | 32 | -4 | 48 |
| 7 |  Slavia III | 32 | +7 | 46 |
| 8 |  České Budějovice II | 32 | +5 | 45 |
| 9 |  Aritma Praha | 32 | 0 | 45 |
| 10 |  Loko Vltavín | 32 | -8 | 44 |
| 11 |  Příbram II | 32 | -11 | 40 |
| 12 |  Bohemians 1905 II | 32 | -3 | 38 |
| 13 |  Dukla Praha II | 32 | -9 | 38 |
| 14 |  Motorlet Praha | 32 | -13 | 34 |
| 15 |  Sokol Hostouň | 32 | -14 | 34 |
| 16 |  Petřín Plzeň | 32 | -35 | 28 |
| 17 |  Táborsko II | 32 | -48 | 16 |
More 3. Liga CFL A predictions
League page →
Povltava FA0Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Příbram II vs Motorlet Praha?
The Model pick is Motorlet Praha to win with a model probability of 57, priced around 1.89 by the bookmakers.
What are the Příbram II v Motorlet Praha probabilities?
Příbram II win 22%, draw 21%, Motorlet Praha win 57%.
What is the most probable score for Příbram II vs Motorlet Praha?
Příbram II 1–2 Motorlet Praha is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Příbram II vs Motorlet Praha?
Příbram II 1.18, Motorlet Praha 2.02 – over 2.5 at 62%, BTTS at 63%.
What time is Příbram II vs Motorlet Praha?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 14:00 WAT, at SK Tochovice - trava – 3. Liga CFL A.