- λ home
- 1.36
- λ away
- 2.53
- Σλ total
- 3.89
- P(over 2.5)
- 72%
- P(BTTS)
- 68%
- Modal score
- 1–2 8.9%
Aritma Praha vs Jiskra Domažlice prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Aritma Praha 19% · draw 18% · Jiskra Domažlice 63%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Aritma Praha v Jiskra Domažlice: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Aritma Praha v Jiskra Domažlice are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 4.29 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.56 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.89 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.36, λaway = 2.53
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 19.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 18.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 62.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 8.9%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aritma Praha | – | 16.0% | 23.6% | 19.2% |
| X Draw | – | 15.0% | 21.7% | 17.8% |
| 2 Jiskra Domažlice | – | 69.0% | 54.7% | 63.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Aritma Praha | 19.2% | 5.21 | 3.78 | 26.5% | -27.5% | |
| X · Draw | 17.8% | 5.61 | 4.10 | 24.4% | -26.9% | |
| 2 · Jiskra Domažlice | 63.0% | 1.59 | 1.63 | 61.3% | +2.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 37.0% | 2.70 | 1.97 | 50.8% | -27.1% | |
| X2 | 80.8% | 1.24 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -5.4% | |
| 12 | 82.2% | 1.22 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -6.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Aritma Praha | 23.3% | 4.28 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Jiskra Domažlice | 76.7% | 1.30 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 88.1% | 1.14 | 1.05 | 95.2% | -7.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 11.9% | 8.41 | 6.55 | 15.3% | -22.1% | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 71.8% | 1.39 | 1.31 | 76.3% | -5.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 28.2% | 3.55 | 2.92 | 34.2% | -17.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 51.9% | 1.93 | 1.86 | 53.8% | -3.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 48.1% | 2.08 | 1.81 | 55.2% | -13.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 67.9% | 1.47 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -8.3% | |
| BTTS no | 32.1% | 3.12 | 2.79 | 35.8% | -10.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 19.7% | 5.07 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 32.3% | 3.10 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 48.0% | 2.08 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.718 × 1.31 − 1 = -0.059 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Aritma Praha | Jiskra Domažlice |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLDLDD | WWLLDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-4-2 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 2.83 |
| Goals against / match | 2.00 | 3.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% |
| BTTS | 67% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Jiskra Domažlice favoured on the road at 63% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage. Standings: Aritma Praha 9th on 45, Jiskra Domažlice 2nd on 69.
Form
Aritma Praha, last six: D L D L D D – zero wins in total. Latest: 1–1 away at Sparta Praha II. Per match: 1.2 scored, 2.0 conceded.
Jiskra Domažlice have two wins from their last six (W W L L D D). Latest: 5–3 at home to Písek. Scoring rate: 2.8 per match – well above average. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (May 2026): Jiskra Domažlice 3–2 Aritma Praha. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Aritma Praha 1.36 · Jiskra Domažlice 2.53 · total 3.89. High total: over 2.5 72%, BTTS 68%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Over 2.5 goals, probability 72%, odds 1.31 v fair 1.39. Most probable score: Aritma Praha 1–2 Jiskra Domažlice. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 20 May 2026Jiskra Domažlice3–2Aritma Praha
3. Liga CFL A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kladno | 32 | +58 | 72 |
| 2 |  Jiskra Domažlice | 32 | +38 | 69 |
| 3 |  Viktoria Plzeň II | 32 | +22 | 61 |
| 4 |  Písek | 32 | +12 | 52 |
| 5 |  Králův Dvůr | 32 | +3 | 49 |
| 6 |  Admira Praha | 32 | -4 | 48 |
| 7 |  Slavia III | 32 | +7 | 46 |
| 8 |  České Budějovice II | 32 | +5 | 45 |
| 9 |  Aritma Praha | 32 | 0 | 45 |
| 10 |  Loko Vltavín | 32 | -8 | 44 |
| 11 |  Příbram II | 32 | -11 | 40 |
| 12 |  Bohemians 1905 II | 32 | -3 | 38 |
| 13 |  Dukla Praha II | 32 | -9 | 38 |
| 14 |  Motorlet Praha | 32 | -13 | 34 |
| 15 |  Sokol Hostouň | 32 | -14 | 34 |
| 16 |  Petřín Plzeň | 32 | -35 | 28 |
| 17 |  Táborsko II | 32 | -48 | 16 |
More 3. Liga CFL A predictions
League page →
Povltava FAFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Aritma Praha vs Jiskra Domažlice?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 72, priced around 1.31 by the bookmakers.
What are the Aritma Praha v Jiskra Domažlice probabilities?
Aritma Praha win 19%, draw 18%, Jiskra Domažlice win 63%.
What is the most probable score for Aritma Praha vs Jiskra Domažlice?
Aritma Praha 1–2 Jiskra Domažlice is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Aritma Praha vs Jiskra Domažlice?
Aritma Praha 1.36, Jiskra Domažlice 2.53 – over 2.5 at 72%, BTTS at 68%.
What time is Aritma Praha vs Jiskra Domažlice?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 10:15 WAT, at SK Aritma Praha – 3. Liga CFL A.