- λ home
- 2.81
- λ away
- 0.87
- Σλ total
- 3.68
- P(over 2.5)
- 74%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 2–0 9.9%
Sebat Gençlikspor vs Adana Demirspor prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Sebat Gençlikspor v Adana Demirspor: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 5–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Sebat Gençlikspor v Adana Demirspor are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (21 and 23 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebat Gençlikspor (home) | 1.66 | 1.27 | 1.74 | 3.68 |
| Adana Demirspor (away) | 1.38 | 0.66 | 0.85 | 0.78 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.27 × 1.74 ≈ 3.68
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 4.46 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.30 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 4.00 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.68 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.81, λaway = 0.87
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 77.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 13.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 8.9%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 9.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sebat Gençlikspor | 87.8% | 69.0% | 85.6% | 76.0% |
| X Draw | 8.2% | 21.0% | 10.1% | 16.4% |
| 2 Adana Demirspor | 4.0% | 10.0% | 4.2% | 7.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Sebat Gençlikspor | 76.0% | 1.32 | 1.04 | 96.2% | -21.0% | |
| X · Draw | 16.4% | 6.09 | 8.80 | 11.4% | +44.6% | |
| 2 · Adana Demirspor | 7.6% | 13.19 | 21.00 | 4.8% | +59.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 92.4% | 1.08 | 1.01 | 99.0% | -6.7% | |
| X2 | 24.0% | 4.16 | 6.25 | 16.0% | +50.1% | |
| 12 | 83.6% | 1.20 | 1.03 | 97.1% | -13.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Sebat Gençlikspor | 90.9% | 1.10 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Adana Demirspor | 9.1% | 11.02 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 89.1% | 1.12 | 1.05 | 95.2% | -6.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 10.9% | 9.19 | 9.50 | 10.5% | +3.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 73.6% | 1.36 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -12.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 26.4% | 3.79 | 3.80 | 26.3% | +0.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | 1.52 | 65.8% | -16.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 44.8% | 2.23 | 2.31 | 43.3% | +3.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 53.5% | 1.87 | 2.04 | 49.0% | +9.2% | |
| BTTS no | 46.5% | 2.15 | 1.66 | 60.2% | -22.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 58.0% | 1.72 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 30.4% | 3.28 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 11.5% | 8.66 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.535 × 2.04 − 1 = +0.092 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.089 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Sebat Gençlikspor | Adana Demirspor |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDWWWL | LLLLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 1-0-5 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 2.83 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 3.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Sebat Gençlikspor at 76%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Sebat Gençlikspor 9th on 15, Adana Demirspor 18th on 0.
Form
Sebat Gençlikspor have four wins from their last six (W D W W W L). Latest: 6–0 at home to Kastamonuspor. Scoring rate: 2.8 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Adana Demirspor, last six: L L L L W L – one win in total. Latest: 2–3 at home to Ankaraspor. Per match: 1.2 scored, 3.2 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Sebat Gençlikspor 2.81 · Adana Demirspor 0.87 · total 3.68. High total: over 2.5 74%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 54%, odds 2.04 v fair 1.87. Most probable score: Sebat Gençlikspor 2–1 Adana Demirspor. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
2. Lig table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Elazığspor | 11 | +21 | 26 |
| 2 |  Muş Sport Klübü | 11 | +18 | 26 |
| 3 |  Güzide Gebzespor | 11 | +8 | 24 |
| 4 |  Aliağa FAŞ | 11 | +5 | 23 |
| 5 |  Şanlıurfaspor | 11 | +13 | 21 |
| 6 |  Çorluspor 1947 | 11 | +9 | 21 |
| 7 |  İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik | 11 | +5 | 20 |
| 8 |  Erbaaspor | 11 | +5 | 17 |
| 9 |  Sebat Gençlikspor | 11 | +9 | 15 |
| 10 |  Isparta 32 Spor | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 |  Menemen FK | 11 | -3 | 14 |
| 12 |  Ankaraspor | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 13 |  68 Aksaray Belediyespor | 11 | +3 | 12 |
| 14 |  Somaspor | 11 | -8 | 11 |
| 15 |  Kastamonuspor | 11 | -30 | 4 |
| 16 |  Arnavutköy Belediyespor | 11 | -16 | 1 |
| 17 |  Hatayspor | 11 | -17 | 0 |
| 18 |  Adana Demirspor | 11 | -17 | 0 |
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Serik Spor1Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Sebat Gençlikspor vs Adana Demirspor?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 54, priced around 2.04 by the bookmakers.
What are the Sebat Gençlikspor v Adana Demirspor probabilities?
Sebat Gençlikspor win 76%, draw 16%, Adana Demirspor win 8%.
What is the most probable score for Sebat Gençlikspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Sebat Gençlikspor 2–1 Adana Demirspor is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Sebat Gençlikspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Sebat Gençlikspor 2.81, Adana Demirspor 0.87 – over 2.5 at 74%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Sebat Gençlikspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 11:00 WAT – 2. Lig.