The model, unedited. For the day's biggest fixtures you see each side's expected goals, the full score grid they produce and the market probabilities read straight from it.
Rows are the home team's goals, columns the away team's. Each cell is the chance of that exact final score, in per cent; the brightest cell is the single likeliest result. Add the cells below the diagonal and you have the home-win probability, the diagonal gives the draw, and the cells above it the away win. Cells where the two numbers add to three or more make up "over 2.5".
Expected goals drive everything. When one side's xG is well above the other's, the grid's weight slides towards that side's corner. When both figures are low, the top-left cells – 0–0, 1–0, 0–1, 1–1 – hold most of the probability and unders become likely. Read more in the methodology, or compare the model with results on the track record.
Every Winning Arena tip comes from a table like the ones on this page – a grid that gives a chance to every possible score. We publish them in full because a tip you cannot check is just an opinion. Here is how to read one, and why it is the most useful thing on the site for goals and correct score bets.
Each team has an attack rating and a defence rating. Put one team's attack against the other's defence, scale it to the league's average and home advantage, and you get the goals that team should score. Do it for both sides and you have two numbers – say 1.6 and 1.1. The Poisson method turns each number into a chance of scoring 0, 1, 2, 3 or more goals; multiplying the two sets gives every scoreline. Real football produces slightly more 0–0 and 1–1 draws than the pure maths, so those cells are lifted a little and the grid rebalanced.
Because every market is read from the same table, the tips cannot contradict each other. If the grid makes 1–0 and 2–0 the likeliest scores, under 2.5 and BTTS No will rate well too. If you disagree with a market, the grid shows you exactly which goal figure you disagree with.
It knows ratings and prices, not red cards, injuries announced an hour before kick-off or a coach resting his best players. That is why we blend the grid with bookmaker prices before publishing, and why every chance is a probability rather than a promise.
Use the grid to cover two or three neighbouring correct scores, to test an over/under price, or simply to see how open a match should be. Every tip built from it is settled in the prediction archive. 18+.
Expected goals of 1.6 for the home side and 1.1 for the visitors produce a grid where 1–1 sits around 12%, 1–0 around 10%, 2–1 around 10% and 0–0 around 7%. Add the cells below the diagonal and the home win comes to roughly 48%; the diagonal gives a draw around 26%; the rest is the away win at about 26%. Over 2.5 – every cell with three or more goals – comes to about 50%. From one table you have priced the result, the goals and the scores. Compare each with the bookmaker's odds and you know where, if anywhere, to bet.
Why does the grid stop at 7–7? Scores beyond that are so rare that they barely affect any market.
Can I use the grid for live betting? It describes the match before kick-off. Once goals and cards change the game, the grid no longer fits.
A method that treats each team's goals as random events with a known average – its expected goals. From the two averages it calculates the chance of 0, 1, 2, 3… goals for each side, and multiplying those gives the probability of every exact score.
Mostly from Winning Arena's own attack and defence ratings, fitted to each league's results. They are blended with a statistical xG feed and the goal line implied by bookmaker prices, so late team news is not ignored.
Because no single scoreline is very likely. A home win can be the best result overall – spread over 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more – while 1–1 is the most likely individual score.
Constantly, in single games. It aims to be right about how often things happen, not about each match. The calibration page tests exactly that.
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