- λ home
- 1.71
- λ away
- 0.66
- Σλ total
- 2.37
- P(over 2.5)
- 46%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 1–0 16.0%
Kosovo vs Israel prediction & xG model: Kosovo or draw
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Kosovo 64% · draw 22% · Israel 15%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Kosovo v Israel: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Kosovo v Israel are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.00 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.67 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.37 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.71, λaway = 0.66
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 62.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 13.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 16.0%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Kosovo | – | 72.0% | 52.2% | 63.7% |
| X Draw | – | 19.0% | 25.4% | 21.7% |
| 2 Israel | – | 9.0% | 22.4% | 14.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.064 → 6.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Kosovo | 63.7% | 1.57 | 1.80 | 55.6% | +14.6% | |
| X · Draw | 21.7% | 4.61 | 3.70 | 27.0% | -19.7% | |
| 2 · Israel | 14.6% | 6.84 | 4.20 | 23.8% | -38.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X pick | 85.4% | 1.17 | 1.22 | 82.0% | +4.2% | |
| X2 | 36.3% | 2.75 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -29.2% | |
| 12 | 78.3% | 1.28 | 1.28 | 78.1% | +0.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Kosovo | 81.3% | 1.23 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Israel | 18.7% | 5.36 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 70.8% | 1.41 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -9.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 29.2% | 3.43 | 3.50 | 28.6% | +2.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46.1% | 2.17 | 1.90 | 52.6% | -12.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 53.9% | 1.85 | 1.90 | 52.6% | +2.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25.2% | 3.96 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -17.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 74.8% | 1.34 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -0.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 51.0% | 1.96 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -8.3% | |
| BTTS no | 49.0% | 2.04 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -6.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 43.6% | 2.30 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.4% | 2.31 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 13.1% | 7.66 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.854 × 1.22 − 1 = +0.042 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.189 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Kosovo | Israel |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDLWWL | DDLLWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Kosovo at 64%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Kosovo 2nd on 5, Israel 4th on 2.
Form
Kosovo, last six: D D L W W L – two wins in total. Latest: 1–1 at home to Austria. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Israel: D D L L W D, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–1 away at Rep. Of Ireland. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Last meeting (Oct 2026): Israel 0–0 Kosovo. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Kosovo 1.71 · Israel 0.66 · total 2.37. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 46%, BTTS 51%.
Model selection
Selection: Kosovo or draw, probability 85%, odds 1.22 v fair 1.17. Most probable score: Kosovo 1–0 Israel. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 1 Oct 2026Israel0–0Kosovo
UEFA Nations League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Austria | 4 | +4 | 8 |
| 2 |  Kosovo | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 3 |  Rep. Of Ireland | 4 | +2 | 5 |
| 4 |  Israel | 4 | -5 | 2 |
More UEFA Nations League predictions
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Bosnia & HerzegovinaFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Kosovo vs Israel?
The Model pick is Kosovo or draw with a model probability of 85, priced around 1.22 by the bookmakers.
What are the Kosovo v Israel probabilities?
Kosovo win 64%, draw 22%, Israel win 15%.
What is the most probable score for Kosovo vs Israel?
Kosovo 1–0 Israel is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Kosovo vs Israel?
Kosovo 1.71, Israel 0.66 – over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is Kosovo vs Israel?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 15:00 WAT, at Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri – UEFA Nations League.