- λ home
- 1.09
- λ away
- 2.01
- Σλ total
- 3.10
- P(over 2.5)
- 57%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 1–2 9.9%
Romania vs Poland prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Romania 21% · draw 19% · Poland 60%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Romania v Poland: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Romania v Poland are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.38 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.87 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.10 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.09, λaway = 2.01
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 20.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 58.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 9.9%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Romania | – | 18.0% | 25.1% | 21.0% |
| X Draw | – | 16.0% | 24.1% | 19.4% |
| 2 Poland | – | 66.0% | 50.8% | 59.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.064 → 6.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Romania | 21.0% | 4.77 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -21.4% | |
| X · Draw | 19.4% | 5.15 | 3.90 | 25.6% | -24.3% | |
| 2 · Poland | 59.6% | 1.68 | 1.85 | 54.1% | +10.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 40.4% | 2.48 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -22.9% | |
| X2 | 79.0% | 1.27 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -1.2% | |
| 12 | 80.6% | 1.24 | 1.25 | 80.0% | +0.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Romania | 26.0% | 3.84 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Poland | 74.0% | 1.35 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 79.1% | 1.26 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -3.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.9% | 4.78 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -16.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57.2% | 1.75 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -1.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 42.8% | 2.34 | 2.08 | 48.1% | -11.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 35.6% | 2.81 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -2.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 64.4% | 1.55 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -9.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 58.7% | 1.70 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -1.9% | |
| BTTS no | 41.3% | 2.42 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -13.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 19.0% | 5.26 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.6% | 2.66 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 43.4% | 2.31 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.791 × 1.22 − 1 = -0.035 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Romania | Poland |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLLWD | LWLDDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 2.50 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 60% against 21%. Standings: Romania 4th on 0, Poland 3rd on 4.
Form
Romania, last six: L L L L W D – one win in total. Latest: 0–1 at home to Sweden. Per match: 1.0 scored, 2.5 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Poland have one win from their last six (L W L D D L). Latest: 0–1 away at Bosnia & Herzegovina. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Oct 2026): Poland 6–0 Romania. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Romania 1.09 · Poland 2.01 · total 3.10. High total: over 2.5 57%, BTTS 59%.
Model selection
Selection: Over 1.5 goals, probability 79%, odds 1.22 v fair 1.26. Most probable score: Romania 1–2 Poland. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 2 Oct 2026Poland6–0Romania
UEFA Nations League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sweden | 4 | +4 | 10 |
| 2 |  Bosnia & Herzegovina | 4 | +3 | 8 |
| 3 |  Poland | 4 | +3 | 4 |
| 4 |  Romania | 4 | -10 | 0 |
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Rep. Of IrelandFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Romania vs Poland?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 79, priced around 1.22 by the bookmakers.
What are the Romania v Poland probabilities?
Romania win 21%, draw 19%, Poland win 60%.
What is the most probable score for Romania vs Poland?
Romania 1–2 Poland is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Romania vs Poland?
Romania 1.09, Poland 2.01 – over 2.5 at 57%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is Romania vs Poland?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 20:45 WAT, at Arena Națională – UEFA Nations League.