Europe UEFA Nations League Sat 14 Nov 2026 · Windsor Park Full time

Northern Ireland

LWDWD

1–0

Half-time 0–0

Ukraine

WWDLL

46%P(1)25%P(X)28%P(2)

λ home: 1.07
λ away: 0.73
Σλ total: 1.80
P(over 2.5): 32%
P(BTTS): 48%
Modal score: 1–0 17.7%

Northern Ireland vs Ukraine prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓

The Arena debate · settled

Northern Ireland v Ukraine: how the Arena called it

Full time: 1–0
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipUnder 2.5 goals✓
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Northern Ireland v Ukraine are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to league results (5 and 5 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Northern Ireland (home)	1.28	0.94	1.05	1.26
Ukraine (away)	1.25	0.77	0.58	0.56

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.28 × 0.94 × 1.05 ≈ 1.26

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	1.81	45%
Statistical xG feed	1.38	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	2.15	30%
Blended total λ	1.80	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.07, λ_away = 0.73

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Northern Ireland λ = 1.07

034.4%

136.7%

219.6%

37.0%

41.9%

5+0.5%

Ukraine λ = 0.73

048.1%

135.2%

212.9%

33.1%

40.6%

5+0.1%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Nor \ Ukr012345+

017124.41.1··

118134.71.2··

29.46.92.50.6··

33.42.50.9···

40.90.7····

5+······

Σ home-win cells: 43.0%
Σ draw cells: 32.2%
Σ away-win cells: 24.8%
Most probable score: 1–0 · 17.7%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Northern Ireland	52.4%	53.0%	37.3%	46.4%
X Draw	31.6%	20.0%	33.0%	25.5%
2 Ukraine	16.1%	27.0%	29.7%	28.1%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.052 → 5.2% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Northern Ireland	46.4%	2.16	2.55	39.2%	+18.3%
X · Draw	25.5%	3.93	2.88	34.7%	-26.7%
2 · Ukraine	28.1%	3.55	3.20	31.3%	-10.0%
Double chance
1X	71.9%	1.39	1.36	73.5%	-2.3%
X2	53.6%	1.87	1.50	66.7%	-19.6%
12	74.5%	1.34	1.36	73.5%	+1.4%
Draw no bet
DNB Northern Ireland	62.2%	1.61	–	–	–
DNB Ukraine	37.8%	2.65	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	58.1%	1.72	1.50	66.7%	-12.9%
Under 1.5	41.9%	2.39	2.50	40.0%	+4.8%
Over 2.5	31.6%	3.17	2.60	38.5%	-17.9%
Under 2.5 pick	68.4%	1.46	1.48	67.6%	+1.3%
Over 3.5	14.9%	6.71	5.00	20.0%	-25.5%
Under 3.5	85.1%	1.18	1.17	85.5%	-0.4%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	48.1%	2.08	2.10	47.6%	+1.0%
BTTS no	51.9%	1.93	1.67	59.9%	-13.3%
Half-time
HT 1	29.1%	3.44	–	–	–
HT X	52.4%	1.91	–	–	–
HT 2	18.5%	5.42	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickUnder 2.5 goals

Probability68.4%

Fair odds1.46

Best odds1.48

EV per unit+1.3%

EV = 0.684 × 1.48 − 1 = +0.013 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.026 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.7% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Northern Ireland	Ukraine
Sequence	DWDWLW	LLDWWW
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	3-2-1	3-1-2
Points per match	1.83	1.67
Goals for / match	1.00	0.83
Goals against / match	0.50	0.83
Over 2.5	33%	33%
BTTS	17%	17%
Clean sheets	83%	67%
Failed to score	33%	33%

Graded reviewNorthern Ireland 1-0 Ukraine: Model Pick Correct – Europe UEFA Nations LeagueRead →xG previewNorthern Ireland vs Ukraine Prediction, xG & Stats: Under 2.5 goals (Europe UEFA Nations League)Read →

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Slight home preference: Northern Ireland 46%, draw 25%, Ukraine 28%. Standings: Northern Ireland 1st on 11, Ukraine 3rd on 4.

Form

Northern Ireland have three wins from their last six (D W D W L W). Latest: 0–0 at home to Georgia. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded. 5 shut-outs in that run.

Ukraine have three wins from their last six (L L D W W W). Latest: 1–2 at home to Hungary. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell. 4 shut-outs in that run.

Head to head

Last meeting (Oct 2026): Ukraine 0–3 Northern Ireland. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Northern Ireland 1.07 · Ukraine 0.73 · total 1.80. Low total: under 2.5 68%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 68%, odds 1.48 v fair 1.46. Most probable score: Northern Ireland 1–0 Ukraine. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.