Europe UEFA Nations League Sat 14 Nov 2026 · Strawberry Arena Full time

Sweden

LWWDW

3–2

Half-time 3–0

Bosnia & Herzegovina

LDWDW

66%P(1)21%P(X)13%P(2)

λ home: 1.92
λ away: 0.73
Σλ total: 2.64
P(over 2.5): 52%
P(BTTS): 51%
Modal score: 1–0 13.6%

Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗

The Arena debate · settled

Sweden v Bosnia & Herzegovina: how the Arena called it

Full time: 3–2
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipUnder 3.5 goals✗
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Sweden v Bosnia & Herzegovina are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to league results (5 and 5 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Sweden (home)	1.28	1.22	0.98	1.53
Bosnia & Herzegovina (away)	1.25	1.14	0.91	1.29

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.28 × 1.22 × 0.98 ≈ 1.53

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	2.81	45%
Statistical xG feed	2.38	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	2.87	30%
Blended total λ	2.64	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.92, λ_away = 0.73

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Sweden λ = 1.92

014.7%

128.2%

227.0%

317.3%

48.3%

5+4.6%

Bosnia & Herzegovina λ = 0.73

048.4%

135.1%

212.7%

33.1%

40.6%

5+0.1%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Swe \ Bos012345+

07.15.21.9···

1149.93.60.9··

2139.53.40.8··

38.46.12.20.5··

44.02.91.1···

5+2.21.60.6···

Σ home-win cells: 65.7%
Σ draw cells: 21.0%
Σ away-win cells: 13.3%
Most probable score: 1–0 · 13.6%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Sweden	42.2%	66.0%	64.9%	65.5%
X Draw	26.2%	21.0%	21.7%	21.3%
2 Bosnia & Herzegovina	31.6%	13.0%	13.4%	13.2%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.063 → 6.3% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Sweden	65.5%	1.53	1.45	69.0%	-5.0%
X · Draw	21.3%	4.69	4.33	23.1%	-7.8%
2 · Bosnia & Herzegovina	13.2%	7.59	7.00	14.3%	-7.7%
Double chance
1X	86.8%	1.15	1.10	90.9%	-4.5%
X2	34.5%	2.90	2.62	38.2%	-9.7%
12	78.7%	1.27	1.20	83.3%	-5.6%
Draw no bet
DNB Sweden	83.3%	1.20	–	–	–
DNB Bosnia & Herzegovina	16.7%	5.97	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	75.4%	1.33	1.22	82.0%	-8.0%
Under 1.5	24.6%	4.06	4.00	25.0%	-1.5%
Over 2.5	51.9%	1.93	1.73	57.8%	-10.2%
Under 2.5	48.1%	2.08	2.08	48.1%	0.0%
Over 3.5	30.6%	3.27	2.75	36.4%	-16.0%
Under 3.5 pick	69.4%	1.44	1.40	71.4%	-2.8%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	51.0%	1.96	1.83	54.6%	-6.7%
BTTS no	49.0%	2.04	1.83	54.6%	-10.3%
Half-time
HT 1	46.4%	2.15	–	–	–
HT X	40.2%	2.48	–	–	–
HT 2	13.3%	7.51	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickUnder 3.5 goals

Probability69.4%

Fair odds1.44

Best odds1.40

EV per unit-2.8%

EV = 0.694 × 1.40 − 1 = -0.028 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Sweden	Bosnia & Herzegovina
Sequence	WDWWLD	WDWDLW
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	3-2-1	3-2-1
Points per match	1.83	1.83
Goals for / match	1.33	1.50
Goals against / match	1.17	1.00
Over 2.5	50%	33%
BTTS	67%	50%
Clean sheets	17%	33%
Failed to score	17%	33%

Graded reviewSweden 3-2 Bosnia & Herzegovina: Result v xG Model – Europe UEFA Nations LeagueRead →xG previewSweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Prediction, xG & Stats: Under 3.5 goals (Europe UEFA Nations League)Read →

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Strong home favourites – Sweden 66% to win. Standings: Sweden 1st on 13, Bosnia & Herzegovina 2nd on 8.

Form

Sweden, last six: W D W W L D – three wins in total. Latest: 1–0 away at Romania. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded.

Bosnia & Herzegovina, last six: W D W D L W – three wins in total. Latest: 1–0 at home to Poland. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded.

Head to head

Last meeting (Oct 2026): Bosnia & Herzegovina 1–1 Sweden. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Sweden 1.92 · Bosnia & Herzegovina 0.73 · total 2.64. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 52%, BTTS 51%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 69%, odds 1.40 v fair 1.44. Most probable score: Sweden 1–0 Bosnia & Herzegovina. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.