- λ home
- 0.69
- λ away
- 0.91
- Σλ total
- 1.60
- P(over 2.5)
- 30%
- P(BTTS)
- 49%
- Modal score
- 0–0 20.3%
Georgia vs Hungary prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Georgia 32% · draw 24% · Hungary 45%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Georgia v Hungary: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Georgia v Hungary are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 0.88 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.19 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 1.60 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.69, λaway = 0.91
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 26.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 35.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 38.9%
- Most probable score
- 0–0 · 20.3%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Georgia | – | 32.0% | 31.3% | 31.7% |
| X Draw | – | 19.0% | 30.3% | 23.8% |
| 2 Hungary | – | 49.0% | 38.4% | 44.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.064 → 6.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Georgia | 31.7% | 3.15 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -4.8% | |
| X · Draw | 23.8% | 4.21 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -26.4% | |
| 2 · Hungary | 44.5% | 2.25 | 2.45 | 40.8% | +9.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 55.5% | 1.80 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -15.1% | |
| X2 | 68.3% | 1.46 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -7.1% | |
| 12 | 76.2% | 1.31 | 1.36 | 73.5% | +3.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Georgia | 41.6% | 2.40 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Hungary | 58.4% | 1.71 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 55.9% | 1.79 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -19.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 44.1% | 2.27 | 2.62 | 38.2% | +15.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29.5% | 3.39 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -26.2% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 70.5% | 1.42 | 1.50 | 66.7% | +5.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 13.4% | 7.47 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -33.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 86.6% | 1.15 | 1.17 | 85.5% | +1.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 48.6% | 2.06 | 2.10 | 47.6% | +2.2% | |
| BTTS no | 51.4% | 1.95 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -14.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 18.5% | 5.41 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 55.7% | 1.79 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 25.8% | 3.88 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.705 × 1.50 − 1 = +0.057 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.114 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Georgia | Hungary |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLDLWD | WWDLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-3-2 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 0.50 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% |
| BTTS | 17% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 67% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 45% against 32%. Standings: Georgia 4th on 2, Hungary 2nd on 7.
Form
Sequence for Georgia: D L D L W D, so one victory in six. Latest: 0–0 away at Northern Ireland. Only 0.5 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Hungary have four wins from their last six (W W D L W W). Latest: 2–1 away at Ukraine. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Oct 2026): Hungary 1–0 Georgia. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Georgia 0.69 · Hungary 0.91 · total 1.60. Low total: under 2.5 70%.
Model selection
Selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 70%, odds 1.50 v fair 1.42. Most probable score: Georgia 0–1 Hungary. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 2 Oct 2026Hungary1–0Georgia
UEFA Nations League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Northern Ireland | 4 | +4 | 8 |
| 2 |  Hungary | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 3 |  Ukraine | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 4 |  Georgia | 4 | -2 | 2 |
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Bosnia & HerzegovinaFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Georgia vs Hungary?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 70, priced around 1.50 by the bookmakers.
What are the Georgia v Hungary probabilities?
Georgia win 32%, draw 24%, Hungary win 45%.
What is the most probable score for Georgia vs Hungary?
Georgia 0–1 Hungary is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Georgia vs Hungary?
Georgia 0.69, Hungary 0.91 – over 2.5 at 30%, BTTS at 49%.
What time is Georgia vs Hungary?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 18:00 WAT, at Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena – UEFA Nations League.