- λ home
- 1.55
- λ away
- 0.76
- Σλ total
- 2.31
- P(over 2.5)
- 40%
- P(BTTS)
- 53%
- Modal score
- 1–0 15.4%
Doma United vs Barau FC prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Doma United v Barau FC: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–0
- Votes
- 2
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- The crowdSplit down the middle–
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- Voters right1 of 250%
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Doma United v Barau FC are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (12 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doma United (home) | 1.62 | 0.97 | 0.65 | 1.04 |
| Barau FC (away) | 0.74 | 0.91 | 1.12 | 0.75 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.62 × 0.97 × 0.65 ≈ 1.04
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.79 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.35 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.27 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.31 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.55, λaway = 0.76
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 56.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 18.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 15.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Doma United | 40.4% | 63.0% | 49.5% | 57.3% |
| X Draw | 34.3% | 19.0% | 29.2% | 23.3% |
| 2 Barau FC | 25.4% | 18.0% | 21.2% | 19.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Doma United | 57.3% | 1.74 | 1.80 | 55.6% | +3.2% | |
| X · Draw | 23.3% | 4.29 | 3.05 | 32.8% | -28.9% | |
| 2 · Barau FC | 19.4% | 5.17 | 4.20 | 23.8% | -18.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 80.6% | 1.24 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -8.9% | |
| X2 | 42.7% | 2.34 | 1.77 | 56.5% | -24.5% | |
| 12 | 76.7% | 1.30 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -3.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Doma United | 74.8% | 1.34 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Barau FC | 25.2% | 3.96 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 65.6% | 1.52 | 1.41 | 70.9% | -7.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 34.4% | 2.91 | 2.52 | 39.7% | -13.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40.1% | 2.49 | 2.31 | 43.3% | -7.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 59.9% | 1.67 | 1.52 | 65.8% | -9.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 20.9% | 4.79 | 4.20 | 23.8% | -12.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 79.1% | 1.26 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -9.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 53.0% | 1.89 | 2.06 | 48.5% | +9.2% | |
| BTTS no | 47.0% | 2.13 | 1.63 | 61.3% | -23.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 39.1% | 2.56 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.9% | 2.23 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.9% | 6.28 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.530 × 2.06 − 1 = +0.092 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.087 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Doma United | Barau FC |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDDLWL | WDDDDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-3-2 | 1-4-1 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Doma United ahead at 57%, against 19% for Barau FC and 23% for the draw.
Form
Doma United, last six: D D D L W L – one win in total. Latest: 2–2 away at Abia Warriors. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Barau FC have one win from their last six (W D D D D L). Latest: 1–0 at home to Shooting Stars. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Doma United 1.55 · Barau FC 0.76 · total 2.31. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 40%, BTTS 53%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 53%, odds 2.06 v fair 1.89. Most probable score: Doma United 2–1 Barau FC. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
NPFL table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Enugu Rangers | 38 | +20 | 68 |
| 2 |  Rivers United | 38 | +13 | 67 |
| 3 |  Shooting Stars | 38 | +1 | 60 |
| 4 |  Ikorodu City | 38 | +4 | 58 |
| 5 |  Nasarawa United | 38 | +3 | 56 |
| 6 |  Abia Warriors | 38 | -3 | 55 |
| 7 |  Bendel Insurance | 37 | +5 | 53 |
| 8 |  Barau FC | 38 | +4 | 52 |
| 9 |  Katsina United | 37 | -2 | 52 |
| 10 |  Kano Pillars | 38 | -2 | 51 |
| 11 |  Plateau United | 38 | -1 | 50 |
| 12 |  Kwara United | 38 | -1 | 50 |
| 13 |  Enyimba | 38 | +2 | 49 |
| 14 |  Kun Khalifat FC | 38 | -1 | 49 |
| 15 |  Warri Wolves | 38 | -5 | 49 |
| 16 |  Niger Tornadoes | 38 | +1 | 48 |
| 17 |  Remo Stars | 38 | -5 | 47 |
| 18 |  El Kanemi Warriors | 38 | -16 | 47 |
| 19 |  Bayelsa United | 38 | -5 | 43 |
| 20 |  Wikki Tourist | 38 | -12 | 40 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Doma United vs Barau FC?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 53, priced around 2.06 by the bookmakers.
What are the Doma United v Barau FC probabilities?
Doma United win 57%, draw 23%, Barau FC win 19%.
What is the most probable score for Doma United vs Barau FC?
Doma United 2–1 Barau FC is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Doma United vs Barau FC?
Doma United 1.55, Barau FC 0.76 – over 2.5 at 40%, BTTS at 53%.
What time is Doma United vs Barau FC?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Pantami Stadium – NPFL.