- λ home
- 1.95
- λ away
- 0.85
- Σλ total
- 2.81
- P(over 2.5)
- 53%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 1–0 11.8%
Croix Football IC vs Thaon prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Croix Football IC 65% · draw 19% · Thaon 17%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Croix Football IC v Thaon: who are you backing?
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
Your call Counts on the weekly table · change it until kick-off
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Croix Football IC v Thaon are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.81 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | 2.81 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.95, λaway = 0.85
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 63.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 11.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Croix Football IC | – | 68.0% | 59.8% | 64.5% |
| X Draw | – | 15.0% | 23.4% | 18.5% |
| 2 Thaon | – | 17.0% | 16.9% | 17.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.087 → 8.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Croix Football IC | 64.5% | 1.55 | 1.54 | 64.9% | -0.6% | |
| X · Draw | 18.5% | 5.40 | 3.94 | 25.4% | -27.1% | |
| 2 · Thaon | 17.0% | 5.90 | 5.45 | 18.3% | -7.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 83.0% | 1.20 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -7.8% | |
| X2 | 35.5% | 2.82 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -18.4% | |
| 12 | 81.5% | 1.23 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -1.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Croix Football IC | 79.2% | 1.26 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Thaon | 20.8% | 4.81 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 75.9% | 1.32 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -8.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 24.1% | 4.14 | 3.58 | 27.9% | -13.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -6.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.8% | 2.14 | 1.99 | 50.3% | -6.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 32.0% | 3.13 | 2.74 | 36.5% | -12.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 68.0% | 1.47 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -8.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 54.1% | 1.85 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -2.6% | |
| BTTS no | 45.9% | 2.18 | 1.88 | 53.2% | -13.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 45.4% | 2.20 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.3% | 2.55 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.3% | 6.52 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.759 × 1.21 − 1 = -0.082 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 1 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Croix Football IC | Thaon |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | W | |
| Matches | – | 1 |
| W-D-L | – | 1-0-0 |
| Points per match | – | 3.00 |
| Goals for / match | – | 7.00 |
| Goals against / match | – | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | – | 100% |
| BTTS | – | 100% |
| Clean sheets | – | 0% |
| Failed to score | – | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Croix Football IC at 65%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Croix Football IC 1.95 · Thaon 0.85 · total 2.81. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 53%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Over 1.5 goals, probability 76%, odds 1.21 v fair 1.32. Most probable score: Croix Football IC 2–0 Thaon. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
More Coupe De France predictions
League page →
Tourcoing
Reims
Versailles
Rodez
Vendée Fontenay
Clermont Foot
Stade Béthunois
Nancy
Dunkerque
QuevillyFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Croix Football IC vs Thaon?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 76, priced around 1.21 by the bookmakers.
What are the Croix Football IC v Thaon probabilities?
Croix Football IC win 65%, draw 19%, Thaon win 17%.
What is the most probable score for Croix Football IC vs Thaon?
Croix Football IC 2–0 Thaon is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Croix Football IC vs Thaon?
Croix Football IC 1.95, Thaon 0.85 – over 2.5 at 53%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Croix Football IC vs Thaon?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 17:00 WAT – Coupe De France.