- λ home
- 1.13
- λ away
- 3.09
- Σλ total
- 4.22
- P(over 2.5)
- 79%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 1–3 8.2%
Stade Béthunois vs Nancy prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Stade Béthunois 10% · draw 15% · Nancy 75%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Stade Béthunois v Nancy: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Stade Béthunois v Nancy are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Over/under 2.5 price | 4.22 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | 4.22 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.13, λaway = 3.09
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 10.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 13.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 76.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–3 · 8.2%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Stade Béthunois | – | 12.0% | 6.2% | 9.6% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 12.4% | 15.1% |
| 2 Nancy | – | 71.0% | 81.4% | 75.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.077 → 7.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Stade Béthunois | 9.6% | 10.46 | 15.00 | 6.7% | +43.4% | |
| X · Draw | 15.1% | 6.64 | 7.50 | 13.3% | +12.9% | |
| 2 · Nancy | 75.4% | 1.33 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -14.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 24.6% | 4.06 | 6.00 | 16.7% | +47.7% | |
| X2 | 90.4% | 1.11 | 1.02 | 98.0% | -7.8% | |
| 12 | 84.9% | 1.18 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -8.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Stade Béthunois | 11.3% | 8.89 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Nancy | 88.7% | 1.13 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 92.5% | 1.08 | 1.04 | 96.2% | -3.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 7.5% | 13.26 | 13.00 | 7.7% | -1.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 79.2% | 1.26 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -6.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 20.8% | 4.81 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -6.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 62.7% | 1.60 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -9.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 37.3% | 2.68 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -2.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 60.4% | 1.66 | 1.67 | 59.9% | +0.9% | |
| BTTS no | 39.6% | 2.53 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -16.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 13.5% | 7.39 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 28.2% | 3.55 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 58.3% | 1.72 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.604 × 1.67 − 1 = +0.009 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.013 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.3% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Stade Béthunois | Nancy |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWWWL | |
| Matches | – | 6 |
| W-D-L | – | 5-0-1 |
| Points per match | – | 2.50 |
| Goals for / match | – | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | – | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | – | 50% |
| BTTS | – | 50% |
| Clean sheets | – | 50% |
| Failed to score | – | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Nancy favoured on the road at 75% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage.
Form
Sequence for Nancy: W W W W W L, so five victories in six. Latest: 1–0 at home to Sochaux. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Stade Béthunois 1.13 · Nancy 3.09 · total 4.22. High total: over 2.5 79%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Both teams to score, probability 60%, odds 1.67 v fair 1.66. Most probable score: Stade Béthunois 1–3 Nancy. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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QuevillyFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Stade Béthunois vs Nancy?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.67 by the bookmakers.
What are the Stade Béthunois v Nancy probabilities?
Stade Béthunois win 10%, draw 15%, Nancy win 75%.
What is the most probable score for Stade Béthunois vs Nancy?
Stade Béthunois 1–3 Nancy is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Stade Béthunois vs Nancy?
Stade Béthunois 1.13, Nancy 3.09 – over 2.5 at 79%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Stade Béthunois vs Nancy?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 18:00 WAT – Coupe De France.