Coupe De France Sat 14 Nov 2026 · Stade Marcel Tribut Full time

Dunkerque

LWDLW

0–3

Half-time 0–1

Quevilly

DLWLW

66%P(1)21%P(X)13%P(2)

λ home: 2.21
λ away: 0.89
Σλ total: 3.10
P(over 2.5): 60%
P(BTTS): 58%
Modal score: 2–0 11.0%

Dunkerque vs Quevilly prediction & xG model: Dunkerque to win

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗

The Arena debate · settled

Dunkerque v Quevilly: how the Arena called it

Full time: 0–3
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipDunkerque to win✗
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Dunkerque v Quevilly are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (24 and 25 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Dunkerque (home)	1.66	1.04	0.87	1.51
Quevilly (away)	1.38	1.05	0.84	1.22

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 1.04 × 0.87 ≈ 1.51

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	2.72	60%
Over/under 2.5 price	3.10	40%
Blended total λ	3.10	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 2.21, λ_away = 0.89

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Dunkerque λ = 2.21

011.0%

124.3%

226.8%

319.7%

410.9%

5+7.4%

Quevilly λ = 0.89

040.9%

136.6%

216.3%

34.9%

41.1%

5+0.2%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Dun \ Que012345+

04.54.01.80.5··

19.98.94.01.2··

2119.84.41.3··

38.17.23.21.0··

44.54.01.80.5··

5+3.02.71.2···

Σ home-win cells: 67.3%
Σ draw cells: 18.8%
Σ away-win cells: 13.9%
Most probable score: 2–0 · 11.0%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Dunkerque	43.2%	75.0%	54.1%	66.2%
X Draw	26.6%	18.0%	25.1%	21.0%
2 Quevilly	30.2%	7.0%	20.9%	12.8%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.108 → 10.8% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Dunkerque pick	66.2%	1.51	1.67	59.9%	+10.6%
X · Draw	21.0%	4.77	3.60	27.8%	-24.5%
2 · Quevilly	12.8%	7.80	4.33	23.1%	-44.5%
Double chance
1X	87.2%	1.15	1.17	85.5%	+2.0%
X2	33.8%	2.96	2.10	47.6%	-29.0%
12	79.0%	1.27	1.25	80.0%	-1.2%
Draw no bet
DNB Dunkerque	83.8%	1.19	–	–	–
DNB Quevilly	16.2%	6.17	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	81.3%	1.23	1.17	85.5%	-4.9%
Under 1.5	18.7%	5.35	5.00	20.0%	-6.5%
Over 2.5	59.9%	1.67	1.57	63.7%	-5.9%
Under 2.5	40.1%	2.50	2.35	42.6%	-5.9%
Over 3.5	38.4%	2.61	2.38	42.0%	-8.7%
Under 3.5	61.6%	1.62	1.53	65.4%	-5.7%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	57.5%	1.74	1.57	63.7%	-9.7%
BTTS no	42.5%	2.35	2.25	44.4%	-4.4%
Half-time
HT 1	49.1%	2.04	–	–	–
HT X	36.3%	2.76	–	–	–
HT 2	14.6%	6.83	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickDunkerque to win

Probability66.2%

Fair odds1.51

Best odds1.67

EV per unit+10.6%

EV = 0.662 × 1.67 − 1 = +0.106 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.158 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Dunkerque	Quevilly
Sequence	WLDWLL	WLWLDD
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	2-1-3	2-2-2
Points per match	1.17	1.33
Goals for / match	1.17	1.17
Goals against / match	1.17	1.33
Over 2.5	33%	33%
BTTS	33%	50%
Clean sheets	17%	33%
Failed to score	50%	33%

Match analysisDunkerque vs Quevilly – full model breakdownRead →

Graded reviewDunkerque 0-3 Quevilly: Result v xG Model – Coupe De FranceRead →xG previewDunkerque vs Quevilly Prediction, xG & Stats: Dunkerque to win (Coupe De France)Read →xG previewDunkerque vs Quevilly Match Analysis: xG, Probabilities & PredictionRead →

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Dunkerque at 66%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge.

Form

Dunkerque have two wins from their last six (W L D W L L). Latest: 3–0 at home to Guingamp. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded.

Quevilly have two wins from their last six (W L W L D D). Latest: 2–0 away at Villefranche. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Dunkerque 2.21 · Quevilly 0.89 · total 3.10. High total: over 2.5 60%, BTTS 58%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Dunkerque to win, probability 66%, odds 1.67 v fair 1.51. Most probable score: Dunkerque 2–0 Quevilly. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.