Dunkerque vs Quevilly Match Analysis: xG, Probabilities & Prediction
Dunkerque against Quevilly in the Coupe De France (Saturday 14 November, 18:00 WAT): Dunkerque lead the probabilities at 67%, and the model's selection is Dunkerque to win.
Coupe De France
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · Stade Marcel Tribut
Upcoming
- λ home
- 2.27
- λ away
- 0.89
- Σλ total
- 3.16
- P(over 2.5)
- 61%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 2–0 11.0%
Dunkerque vs Quevilly – Coupe De France, Saturday 14 November 2026, 18:00 WAT. The model's selection is Dunkerque to win at 67% probability. Below is the full working: expected goals, the score grid, the main markets priced against the bookmakers, and the selection – every number reproducible from the one before it.
Step 1 – expected goals
The model starts from expected goals (λ): a blend of team attack and defence ratings, a statistical xG feed and the total implied by the over/under 2.5 price.
| Input | Dunkerque | Quevilly | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected goals λ | 2.27 | 0.89 | 3.16 |
| P(scores 0) | 10.4% | 41.2% | 4.3% (0–0) |
| P(scores 2+) | 66.2% | 22.3% | – |
Each figure follows from the Poisson formula P(k) = e−λλk/k!, so P(0) = e−λ. A total above 2.9 tilts every goal market towards overs.
Step 2 – the score grid
Multiplying the two goal distributions gives every exact score. The five largest cells:
| Score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Dunkerque 2–0 Quevilly | 11.0% | 9.1 |
| Dunkerque 2–1 Quevilly | 9.7% | 10.3 |
| Dunkerque 1–0 Quevilly | 9.7% | 10.3 |
| Dunkerque 1–1 Quevilly | 8.6% | 11.7 |
| Dunkerque 3–0 Quevilly | 8.3% | 12.1 |
Together they cover 47% of outcomes – which is why no single scoreline is ever a strong bet.
Step 3 – probabilities against the price
Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability; expected value (EV) is probability × best odds − 1. A positive EV means the price pays more than the model thinks it should.
| Market | Model p | Fair | Best odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunkerque win | 67.4% | 1.48 | 1.60 | +7.8% |
| Draw | 20.5% | 4.88 | 3.80 | -22.1% |
| Quevilly win | 12.1% | 8.26 | 4.75 | -42.5% |
| Over 1.5 | 82.6% | 1.21 | 1.14 | -5.9% |
| Over 2.5 | 61.1% | 1.64 | 1.53 | -6.6% |
| Over 3.5 | 39.9% | 2.50 | 2.25 | -10.2% |
| Both teams score | 57.5% | 1.74 | 1.57 | -9.7% |
Step 4 – the selection
Highest-rated option: Dunkerque to win, 67% probability, best odds 1.60 against fair odds of 1.48. EV = 0.674 × 1.60 − 1 = +0.078; a quarter-Kelly stake, capped at 2%, would be 2.0% of bankroll. Most probable scoreline: Dunkerque 2–0 Quevilly.
Other markets worth noting: GG (both teams to score) at 58%, double chance Dunkerque or draw at 88% and over 1.5 goals at 83%.
Context – recent form in numbers
Form is already inside the ratings, weighted by how recent each result is (120-day half-life). The raw figures for the last 6 matches:
| Last matches | Dunkerque | Quevilly |
|---|---|---|
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / against per match | 1.17 / 1.17 | 1.17 / 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 · BTTS | 33% · 33% | 33% · 50% |
Dunkerque, last six: W L D W L L – two wins in total. Latest: 3–0 at home to Guingamp. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Quevilly, last six: W L W L D D – two wins in total. Latest: 2–0 away at Villefranche. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Score grid, every market and live updates: Dunkerque vs Quevilly match model.
Probabilities, not guarantees. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+ – keep stakes within your budget.
A model probability is a probability, not a promise. 18+ · Bet responsibly.