- λ home
- 0.85
- λ away
- 1.15
- Σλ total
- 2.00
- P(over 2.5)
- 32%
- P(BTTS)
- 52%
- Modal score
- 0–1 15.6%
Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Ulinzi Stars v Migori Youth: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Ulinzi Stars v Migori Youth are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (20 and 6 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ulinzi Stars (home) | 1.17 | 0.90 | 0.95 | 1.01 |
| Migori Youth (away) | 0.88 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 0.87 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.17 × 0.90 × 0.95 ≈ 1.01
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.88 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.00 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.00 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.85, λaway = 1.15
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 26.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 30.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 42.8%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 15.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Ulinzi Stars | 36.7% | 29.0% | 29.5% | 29.2% |
| X Draw | 33.7% | 20.0% | 33.3% | 25.6% |
| 2 Migori Youth | 29.6% | 51.0% | 37.2% | 45.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.111 → 11.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Ulinzi Stars | 29.2% | 3.42 | 3.05 | 32.8% | -10.9% | |
| X · Draw | 25.6% | 3.91 | 2.70 | 37.0% | -30.9% | |
| 2 · Migori Youth | 45.2% | 2.21 | 2.42 | 41.3% | +9.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 54.8% | 1.82 | 1.45 | 69.0% | -20.5% | |
| X2 | 70.8% | 1.41 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -8.0% | |
| 12 | 74.4% | 1.34 | 1.37 | 73.0% | +1.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Ulinzi Stars | 39.3% | 2.55 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Migori Youth | 60.7% | 1.65 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 59.6% | 1.68 | 1.52 | 65.8% | -9.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 40.4% | 2.48 | 2.27 | 44.1% | -8.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 32.3% | 3.09 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 67.7% | 1.48 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 14.3% | 7.00 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 85.7% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 51.5% | 1.94 | 2.09 | 47.8% | +7.7% | |
| BTTS no | 48.5% | 2.06 | 1.61 | 62.1% | -22.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 20.4% | 4.89 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 49.7% | 2.01 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 29.9% | 3.35 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.515 × 2.09 − 1 = +0.077 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.071 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.8% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Ulinzi Stars | Migori Youth |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLDLWD | LDDWDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-3-2 | 1-4-1 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 17% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 45% against 29%. Standings: Ulinzi Stars 12th on 7, Migori Youth 10th on 7.
Form
Ulinzi Stars have one win from their last six (D L D L W D). Latest: 2–2 away at Murang'a SEAL. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Migori Youth have one win from their last six (L D D W D D). Latest: 1–2 away at Mara Sugar. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Ulinzi Stars 0.85 · Migori Youth 1.15 · total 2.00. Low total: under 2.5 68%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 52%, odds 2.09 v fair 1.94. Most probable score: Ulinzi Stars 1–2 Migori Youth. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
FKF Premier League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GOR Mahia | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 2 |  KCB | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 |  AFC Leopards | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  APS Bomet | 7 | +2 | 9 |
| 5 |  Kenya Police | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Shabana | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 7 |  Mara Sugar | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 |  3K | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 |  Murang'a SEAL | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 |  Migori Youth | 6 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Bandari | 7 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 |  Ulinzi Stars | 7 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 |  Posta Rangers FC | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 |  Tusker | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 15 |  Nairobi United | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Mathare United | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 |  Homeboyz | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 |  Mombasa Elite | 6 | -7 | 1 |
More FKF Premier League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 52, priced around 2.09 by the bookmakers.
What are the Ulinzi Stars v Migori Youth probabilities?
Ulinzi Stars win 29%, draw 26%, Migori Youth win 45%.
What is the most probable score for Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth?
Ulinzi Stars 1–2 Migori Youth is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth?
Ulinzi Stars 0.85, Migori Youth 1.15 – over 2.5 at 32%, BTTS at 52%.
What time is Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 13:00 WAT – FKF Premier League.