- λ home
- 0.68
- λ away
- 2.84
- Σλ total
- 3.53
- P(over 2.5)
- 73%
- P(BTTS)
- 48%
- Modal score
- 0–2 11.9%
Yenisey W vs Zenit W prediction & xG model: Over 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Yenisey W 6% · draw 12% · Zenit W 82%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Yenisey W v Zenit W: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Yenisey W v Zenit W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.83 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 4.11 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.53 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.68, λaway = 2.84
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 6.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 12.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 81.6%
- Most probable score
- 0–2 · 11.9%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Yenisey W | – | 10.0% | 1.2% | 6.3% |
| X Draw | – | 15.0% | 7.8% | 12.0% |
| 2 Zenit W | – | 75.0% | 90.9% | 81.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.068 → 6.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Yenisey W | 6.3% | 15.81 | 75.00 | 1.3% | +374.3% | |
| X · Draw | 12.0% | 8.35 | 12.00 | 8.3% | +43.7% | |
| 2 · Zenit W | 81.7% | 1.22 | 1.03 | 97.1% | -15.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 18.3% | 5.46 | 10.00 | 10.0% | +83.0% | |
| X2 | 93.7% | 1.07 | – | – | – | |
| 12 | 88.0% | 1.14 | 1.01 | 99.0% | -11.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Yenisey W | 7.2% | 13.92 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Zenit W | 92.8% | 1.08 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 86.7% | 1.15 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 13.3% | 7.52 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 73.1% | 1.37 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -15.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 26.9% | 3.71 | 4.05 | 24.7% | +9.0% | |
| Over 3.5 pick | 53.2% | 1.88 | 1.52 | 65.8% | -19.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 46.8% | 2.14 | 2.24 | 44.6% | +4.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 47.7% | 2.10 | 2.91 | 34.4% | +38.7% | |
| BTTS no | 52.3% | 1.91 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -30.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 8.9% | 11.28 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 30.0% | 3.33 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 61.1% | 1.64 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.532 × 1.52 − 1 = -0.191 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Yenisey W | Zenit W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLLLL | DWWLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-0-6 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 0.00 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 0.33 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 2.67 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 67% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Zenit W favoured on the road at 82% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage. Standings: Yenisey W 13th on 3, Zenit W 1st on 60.
Form
Yenisey W, last six: L L L L L L – zero wins in total. Latest: 1–3 away at Krasnodar W. Only 0.3 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Zenit W have four wins from their last six (D W W L W W). Latest: 0–0 at home to CSKA Moskva W. Per match: 1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Jul 2026): Zenit W 4–0 Yenisey W. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Yenisey W 0.68 · Zenit W 2.84 · total 3.53. High total: over 2.5 73%, BTTS 48%.
Model selection
Model selection: Over 3.5 goals, probability 53%, odds 1.52 v fair 1.88. Most probable score: Yenisey W 0–4 Zenit W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 11 Jul 2026Zenit W4–0Yenisey W
Supreme Division Women table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Zenit W | 23 | +49 | 60 |
| 2 |  CSKA Moskva W | 23 | +47 | 59 |
| 3 |  Spartak Moskva W | 23 | +36 | 52 |
| 4 |  Lokomotiv Moskva W | 23 | +27 | 47 |
| 5 |  Dinamo Moskva W | 23 | +7 | 36 |
| 6 |  Krylya Sovetov W | 23 | +5 | 35 |
| 7 |  Chertanovo W | 24 | -5 | 33 |
| 8 |  Rubin Kazan W | 23 | -9 | 24 |
| 9 |  Zvezda Perm W | 23 | -22 | 21 |
| 10 |  Krasnodar W | 23 | -14 | 20 |
| 11 |  Ryazan W | 23 | -28 | 15 |
| 12 |  Rostov W | 23 | -46 | 14 |
| 13 |  Yenisey W | 23 | -47 | 3 |
More Supreme Division Women predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Yenisey W vs Zenit W?
The Model pick is Over 3.5 goals with a model probability of 53, priced around 1.52 by the bookmakers.
What are the Yenisey W v Zenit W probabilities?
Yenisey W win 6%, draw 12%, Zenit W win 82%.
What is the most probable score for Yenisey W vs Zenit W?
Yenisey W 0–4 Zenit W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Yenisey W vs Zenit W?
Yenisey W 0.68, Zenit W 2.84 – over 2.5 at 73%, BTTS at 48%.
What time is Yenisey W vs Zenit W?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 11:00 WAT, at Football Arena Yenisei – Supreme Division Women.