- λ home
- 1.20
- λ away
- 1.50
- Σλ total
- 2.70
- P(over 2.5)
- 48%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.1%
Spartak Moskva W vs CSKA Moskva W prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Spartak Moskva W v CSKA Moskva W: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Spartak Moskva W v CSKA Moskva W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (21 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartak Moskva W (home) | 1.66 | 1.37 | 0.65 | 1.48 |
| CSKA Moskva W (away) | 1.38 | 1.47 | 0.60 | 1.21 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.37 × 0.65 ≈ 1.48
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.69 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.98 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.47 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.70 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.20, λaway = 1.50
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 30.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 44.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Spartak Moskva W | 42.8% | 33.0% | 29.9% | 31.7% |
| X Draw | 26.8% | 18.0% | 28.5% | 22.4% |
| 2 CSKA Moskva W | 30.4% | 49.0% | 41.6% | 45.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.118 → 11.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Spartak Moskva W | 31.7% | 3.15 | 2.99 | 33.4% | -5.2% | |
| X · Draw | 22.4% | 4.46 | 3.14 | 31.8% | -29.7% | |
| 2 · CSKA Moskva W | 45.9% | 2.18 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -1.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 54.1% | 1.85 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -17.2% | |
| X2 | 68.3% | 1.46 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -12.6% | |
| 12 | 77.6% | 1.29 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -2.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Spartak Moskva W | 40.9% | 2.45 | – | – | – | |
| DNB CSKA Moskva W | 59.1% | 1.69 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 71.8% | 1.39 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -5.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.2% | 3.55 | 2.88 | 34.7% | -18.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47.7% | 2.10 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -2.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 52.3% | 1.91 | 1.66 | 60.2% | -13.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 26.9% | 3.71 | 3.58 | 27.9% | -3.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 73.1% | 1.37 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -11.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 54.2% | 1.85 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -1.4% | |
| BTTS no | 45.8% | 2.18 | 1.84 | 54.3% | -15.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 24.6% | 4.06 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.1% | 2.38 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 33.3% | 3.00 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.542 × 1.82 − 1 = -0.014 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Spartak Moskva W | CSKA Moskva W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWWLW | DWWWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-0-2 | 5-1-0 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 2.17 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 17% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 46% against 32%. Standings: Spartak Moskva W 3rd on 55, CSKA Moskva W 2nd on 59.
Form
Sequence for Spartak Moskva W: L W W W L W, so four victories in six. Latest: 0–2 away at Lokomotiv Moskva W. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for CSKA Moskva W: D W W W W W, so five victories in six. Latest: 0–0 away at Zenit W. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Jul 2026): CSKA Moskva W 3–1 Spartak Moskva W. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Spartak Moskva W 1.20 · CSKA Moskva W 1.50 · total 2.70. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 48%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 54%, odds 1.82 v fair 1.85. Most probable score: Spartak Moskva W 1–2 CSKA Moskva W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 11 Jul 2026CSKA Moskva W3–1Spartak Moskva W
Supreme Division Women table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Zenit W | 24 | +50 | 63 |
| 2 |  CSKA Moskva W | 24 | +45 | 59 |
| 3 |  Spartak Moskva W | 24 | +38 | 55 |
| 4 |  Lokomotiv Moskva W | 24 | +28 | 50 |
| 5 |  Krylya Sovetov W | 24 | +9 | 38 |
| 6 |  Dinamo Moskva W | 24 | +5 | 36 |
| 7 |  Chertanovo W | 24 | -5 | 33 |
| 8 |  Rubin Kazan W | 24 | -13 | 24 |
| 9 |  Krasnodar W | 24 | -11 | 23 |
| 10 |  Zvezda Perm W | 24 | -25 | 21 |
| 11 |  Ryazan W | 24 | -26 | 18 |
| 12 |  Rostov W | 24 | -47 | 14 |
| 13 |  Yenisey W | 24 | -48 | 3 |
More Supreme Division Women predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Spartak Moskva W vs CSKA Moskva W?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 54, priced around 1.82 by the bookmakers.
What are the Spartak Moskva W v CSKA Moskva W probabilities?
Spartak Moskva W win 32%, draw 22%, CSKA Moskva W win 46%.
What is the most probable score for Spartak Moskva W vs CSKA Moskva W?
Spartak Moskva W 1–2 CSKA Moskva W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Spartak Moskva W vs CSKA Moskva W?
Spartak Moskva W 1.20, CSKA Moskva W 1.50 – over 2.5 at 48%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Spartak Moskva W vs CSKA Moskva W?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 11:00 WAT, at Cherenkov Academy Stadium – Supreme Division Women.