- λ home
- 2.62
- λ away
- 1.54
- Σλ total
- 4.16
- P(over 2.5)
- 77%
- P(BTTS)
- 73%
- Modal score
- 2–1 8.2%
Opava U19 vs Pardubice U19 prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Opava U19 62% · draw 15% · Pardubice U19 23%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Opava U19 v Pardubice U19: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Opava U19 v Pardubice U19 are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 4.36 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 4.00 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 4.16 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.62, λaway = 1.54
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 60.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 18.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 21.2%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 8.2%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Opava U19 | – | 65.0% | 59.0% | 62.5% |
| X Draw | – | 11.0% | 19.8% | 14.7% |
| 2 Pardubice U19 | – | 24.0% | 21.2% | 22.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Opava U19 | 62.5% | 1.60 | 1.51 | 66.2% | -5.7% | |
| X · Draw | 14.7% | 6.81 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -33.9% | |
| 2 · Pardubice U19 | 22.8% | 4.38 | 4.20 | 23.8% | -4.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 77.2% | 1.30 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -12.8% | |
| X2 | 37.5% | 2.67 | 2.18 | 45.9% | -18.2% | |
| 12 | 85.3% | 1.17 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -5.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Opava U19 | 73.2% | 1.37 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Pardubice U19 | 26.8% | 3.74 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 92.0% | 1.09 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 8.0% | 12.44 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 77.3% | 1.29 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -8.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 22.7% | 4.41 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -13.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 58.7% | 1.70 | 1.59 | 62.9% | -6.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 41.3% | 2.42 | 2.17 | 46.1% | -10.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 73.1% | 1.37 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -7.1% | |
| BTTS no | 26.9% | 3.72 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -14.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 47.2% | 2.12 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 31.2% | 3.20 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 21.6% | 4.63 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.731 × 1.27 − 1 = -0.071 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Opava U19 | Pardubice U19 |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLWWWW | LWLLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-0-2 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 2.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 2.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 83% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Opava U19 62% to win.
Form
Sequence for Opava U19: L L W W W W, so four victories in six. Latest: 1–3 away at Hradec Králové U19. Scoring rate: 2.5 per match – well above average.
Pardubice U19, last six: L W L L W L – two wins in total. Latest: 0–2 at home to Mladá Boleslav U19. 2.0 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Opava U19 2.62 · Pardubice U19 1.54 · total 4.16. Goals expected – 77% for over 2.5 and 73% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Selection: Both teams to score, probability 73%, odds 1.27 v fair 1.37. Most probable score: Opava U19 2–1 Pardubice U19. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
1. Liga U19 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hradec Králové U19 | 29 | +34 | 60 |
| 2 |  Baník Ostrava U19 | 30 | +10 | 54 |
| 3 |  Viktoria Plzeň U19 | 29 | +13 | 48 |
| 4 |  Karviná U19 | 30 | +7 | 48 |
| 5 |  Mladá Boleslav U19 | 30 | +12 | 45 |
| 6 |  Sparta Praha U19 | 29 | +6 | 45 |
| 7 |  Zbrojovka Brno U19 | 30 | +3 | 45 |
| 8 |  Slavia Praha U19 | 29 | 0 | 44 |
| 9 |  Dukla Praha U19 | 29 | -2 | 42 |
| 10 |  České Budějovice U19 | 29 | -4 | 41 |
| 11 |  Pardubice U19 | 29 | +2 | 39 |
| 12 |  Slovácko U19 | 30 | -10 | 39 |
| 13 |  Sigma Olomouc U19 | 29 | -4 | 36 |
| 14 |  Zlín U19 | 29 | -3 | 32 |
| 15 |  Slovan Liberec U19 | 29 | -20 | 28 |
| 16 |  Vysočina Jihlava U19 | 30 | -44 | 19 |
More 1. Liga U19 predictions
League page →
Teplice U19Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Opava U19 vs Pardubice U19?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 73, priced around 1.27 by the bookmakers.
What are the Opava U19 v Pardubice U19 probabilities?
Opava U19 win 62%, draw 15%, Pardubice U19 win 23%.
What is the most probable score for Opava U19 vs Pardubice U19?
Opava U19 2–1 Pardubice U19 is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Opava U19 vs Pardubice U19?
Opava U19 2.62, Pardubice U19 1.54 – over 2.5 at 77%, BTTS at 73%.
What time is Opava U19 vs Pardubice U19?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 11:45 WAT – 1. Liga U19.