- λ home
- 1.03
- λ away
- 2.72
- Σλ total
- 3.75
- P(over 2.5)
- 67%
- P(BTTS)
- 61%
- Modal score
- 1–2 9.0%
Saint Martin vs El Salvador prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Saint Martin v El Salvador: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Saint Martin v El Salvador are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (5 and 5 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Martin (home) | 1.67 | 1.36 | 1.04 | 2.35 |
| El Salvador (away) | 1.82 | 0.92 | 0.79 | 1.33 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.67 × 1.36 × 1.04 ≈ 2.35
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.69 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 4.38 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.22 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.75 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.03, λaway = 2.72
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 11.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 15.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 73.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 9.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Saint Martin | 59.6% | 5.0% | 13.7% | 8.7% |
| X Draw | 19.9% | 22.0% | 20.3% | 21.3% |
| 2 El Salvador | 20.5% | 73.0% | 66.0% | 70.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Saint Martin | 8.7% | 11.55 | 6.50 | 15.4% | -43.7% | |
| X · Draw | 21.3% | 4.70 | 4.40 | 22.7% | -6.4% | |
| 2 · El Salvador | 70.1% | 1.43 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -5.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 29.9% | 3.34 | 2.90 | 34.5% | -13.2% | |
| X2 | 91.3% | 1.09 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -1.4% | |
| 12 | 78.7% | 1.27 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -7.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Saint Martin | 11.0% | 9.09 | – | – | – | |
| DNB El Salvador | 89.0% | 1.12 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 85.8% | 1.17 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -2.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 14.2% | 7.06 | 5.50 | 18.2% | -22.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67.4% | 1.48 | 1.50 | 66.7% | +1.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 32.6% | 3.07 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -18.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 47.0% | 2.13 | 2.20 | 45.5% | +3.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 53.0% | 1.89 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -14.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 60.9% | 1.64 | 1.67 | 59.9% | +1.7% | |
| BTTS no | 39.1% | 2.56 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -17.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 14.0% | 7.17 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 31.1% | 3.21 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 54.9% | 1.82 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.609 × 1.67 − 1 = +0.017 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.025 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.6% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Saint Martin | El Salvador |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLWWW | DLLWDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-0-1 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 2.50 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 4.17 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 33% |
| BTTS | 17% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
El Salvador favoured on the road at 70% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage.
Form
Sequence for Saint Martin: W W L W W W, so five victories in six. Latest: 6–0 at home to Bahamas. Scoring rate: 4.2 per match – well above average. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for El Salvador: D L L W D L, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–1 away at Martinique. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Saint Martin 1.03 · El Salvador 2.72 · total 3.75. High total: over 2.5 67%, BTTS 61%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 61%, odds 1.67 v fair 1.64. Most probable score: Saint Martin 1–2 El Salvador. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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USA6Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Saint Martin vs El Salvador?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 61, priced around 1.67 by the bookmakers.
What are the Saint Martin v El Salvador probabilities?
Saint Martin win 9%, draw 21%, El Salvador win 70%.
What is the most probable score for Saint Martin vs El Salvador?
Saint Martin 1–2 El Salvador is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Saint Martin vs El Salvador?
Saint Martin 1.03, El Salvador 2.72 – over 2.5 at 67%, BTTS at 61%.
What time is Saint Martin vs El Salvador?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 00:00 WAT – CONCACAF Nations League.