- λ home
- 0.83
- λ away
- 1.83
- Σλ total
- 2.66
- P(over 2.5)
- 52%
- P(BTTS)
- 50%
- Modal score
- 0–1 12.8%
Sint Maarten vs French Guyana prediction & xG model: French Guyana to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Sint Maarten 19% · draw 17% · French Guyana 64%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Sint Maarten v French Guyana: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Sint Maarten v French Guyana are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.38 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.89 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.66 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.83, λaway = 1.83
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 16.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 60.9%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 12.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sint Maarten | – | 18.0% | 21.4% | 19.4% |
| X Draw | – | 11.0% | 24.9% | 16.8% |
| 2 French Guyana | – | 71.0% | 53.7% | 63.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.115 → 11.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Sint Maarten | 19.4% | 5.15 | 4.20 | 23.8% | -18.5% | |
| X · Draw | 16.8% | 5.94 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -39.4% | |
| 2 · French Guyana pick | 63.7% | 1.57 | 1.67 | 59.9% | +6.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 36.3% | 2.76 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -37.3% | |
| X2 | 80.6% | 1.24 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +4.8% | |
| 12 | 83.2% | 1.20 | 1.28 | 78.1% | +6.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Sint Maarten | 23.3% | 4.28 | – | – | – | |
| DNB French Guyana | 76.7% | 1.30 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.4% | 1.31 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -8.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.6% | 4.23 | 4.33 | 23.1% | +2.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.91 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -10.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 47.5% | 2.10 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -0.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 31.6% | 3.17 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -17.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 68.4% | 1.46 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -1.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 50.0% | 2.00 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -19.0% | |
| BTTS no | 50.0% | 2.00 | 2.20 | 45.5% | +10.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 15.7% | 6.37 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.9% | 2.45 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 43.4% | 2.30 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.637 × 1.67 − 1 = +0.064 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.096 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Sint Maarten | French Guyana |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLLLLD | WWWL |
| Matches | 6 | 4 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 3-0-1 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 2.25 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.25 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 25% |
| BTTS | 33% | 25% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 75% |
| Failed to score | 67% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: French Guyana 64%, Sint Maarten 19%.
Form
Sint Maarten, last six: W L L L L D – one win in total. Latest: 5–1 at home to Anguilla. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded.
French Guyana have three wins from their last four (W W W L). Latest: 1–0 at home to Belize. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Sep 2026): French Guyana 1–0 Sint Maarten. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Sint Maarten 0.83 · French Guyana 1.83 · total 2.66. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 52%, BTTS 50%.
Model selection
Model selection: French Guyana to win, probability 64%, odds 1.67 v fair 1.57. Most probable score: Sint Maarten 0–1 French Guyana. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 29 Sep 2026French Guyana1–0Sint Maarten
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USAFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Sint Maarten vs French Guyana?
The Model pick is French Guyana to win with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.67 by the bookmakers.
What are the Sint Maarten v French Guyana probabilities?
Sint Maarten win 19%, draw 17%, French Guyana win 64%.
What is the most probable score for Sint Maarten vs French Guyana?
Sint Maarten 0–1 French Guyana is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Sint Maarten vs French Guyana?
Sint Maarten 0.83, French Guyana 1.83 – over 2.5 at 52%, BTTS at 50%.
What time is Sint Maarten vs French Guyana?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 20:00 WAT, at Arnos Vale Ground – CONCACAF Nations League.