Saturday 14 November: 7 draws tips on the board, with an average chance of 50%. Strongest: Versailles vs Rodez, Draw at 52%.
Matches where a draw is the single likeliest result. Sorted by probability; tap a match for its score grid.
Coupe De France
Highest probability 
Versaillesvs
RodezEvenly matched, so the draw (52%) is the likeliest result. Rodez arrive after a defeat (LWW). 78.1% edge at 3.40 (fair 1.91).
Match page
FA Trophy
No. 2 
Merthyr Townvs
Harborough TownNothing between them: 28% / 52% / 20%. Merthyr Town arrive after a win (WLL); Harborough Town lost last time out (LLD). The 3.34 price beats fair odds of 1.91 – value.
Match pageFA Trophy
No. 3 
Walton & Hershamvs
AveleyEvenly matched, so the draw (51%) is the likeliest result. Walton & Hersham have not won in 4 (LLLL). 78.8% edge at 3.48 (fair 1.95).
Match pageFA Trophy
No. 4 
Darlington 1883vs
BuryEvenly matched, so the draw (51%) is the likeliest result. Darlington 1883 form: DLW (W1 D1 L1). 81.3% edge at 3.54 (fair 1.95).
Match pageSaturday 14 November: 7 tips with an average chance of 50%. The strongest still to play: Versailles vs Rodez (Coupe De France) – Draw, 52%. Most tips come from England FA Trophy (6), France Coupe De France (1). 7 of them are priced above our fair odds.
Matches where the draw is the single likeliest result in our numbers.
Any level score pays.
Evenly rated teams, low expected goals and a league where draws are common.
Each team's expected goals combine our attack and defence ratings, a statistical goals feed and the total implied by the bookmakers' goal line. From those two figures we give every scoreline a chance, and every market is built from the same table – which is why the result, goals and BTTS tips for one match never contradict each other. Fair odds are 1 ÷ chance; any price above them is marked as value. The whole process is on how it works, and the full tables are on score grids.
Prefer combinations? See accumulator bets, the banker of the day or all markets.
The draw is the most neglected bet in football. Fans rarely back it, tipsters rarely tip it, and yet roughly one match in four ends level. That neglect is exactly why the draw sometimes offers some of the best prices on the board – and why this page exists.
Our numbers favour the draw when both teams are expected to score few goals and the gap between them is small. Two cautious sides, each expected to score around one goal, can produce a draw chance of 30% or more – and draw prices of 3.40 or higher imply less than that.
Draw tips will lose most of the time; that is the nature of a 28–33% outcome. They are only worth backing when the price pays more than the chance, and only with flat, modest stakes. Judge draw betting over a season, not a week – the market profit table shows how it has done.
If you think a draw is likely but want to win more often, double chance covers the draw and one result. If you expect a goalless game, look at the under side of over/under 2.5 and the 0–0 on correct score.
The draw is settled on the 90-minute score – a cup tie level after 90 minutes is a winning draw bet, whatever happens in extra time. Every tip is in the prediction archive. 18+.
Suppose you back forty draws in a season at an average chance of 31% and average odds of 3.50. You would expect about 12.4 winners, returning 12.4 × 3.50 = 43.4 units from 40 staked – a profit of 3.4 units, or 8.5%, while losing roughly 28 of the 40 bets. Expect losing runs of six, seven or more. Draw betting rewards patience and flat stakes; it punishes anyone who doubles up after three misses.
Which score do most draws end with? 1–1, followed by 0–0 in tight leagues.
Should I back the draw in every close game? No – only when the price is above 1 ÷ our chance. Close games are often priced fairly.
Is 0–0 or 1–1 the better draw bet? Neither is a draw bet – they are correct scores. The straight draw covers every level score at once.
Do draws happen more late in the season? Often, in games where a point suits both sides. Context matters more than the calendar.
About one match in four in most leagues.
Sometimes, over a large number of bets, because draws are often under-backed.
We estimate the goals each team should score from its attack and defence ratings and the bookmakers' prices, give every possible score a chance, and add up the scores that win the draws bet. Tips are listed from the highest chance down.
How often a tip like this should win. At 70%, expect roughly seven winners and three losers from every ten.
On the Yesterday tab and in the prediction archive – every tip is settled on the 90-minute score and kept.
Add your email once and this device unlocks every score grid, the stake guides and the 90-day tables. No password, no payment – just one weekly round-up at most, and you can leave whenever you like.
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