- λ home
- 1.56
- λ away
- 1.33
- Σλ total
- 2.89
- P(over 2.5)
- 55%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.5%
Bedford Town vs Chesham United prediction & xG model: Bedford Town or draw
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Bedford Town 29% · draw 51% · Chesham United 19%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Bedford Town v Chesham United: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Bedford Town v Chesham United are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.89 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | 2.89 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.56, λaway = 1.33
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 42.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 32.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.5%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Bedford Town | – | 18.0% | 45.4% | 29.5% |
| X Draw | – | 70.0% | 25.2% | 51.2% |
| 2 Chesham United | – | 12.0% | 29.4% | 19.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Bedford Town | 29.5% | 3.39 | 1.97 | 50.8% | -41.9% | |
| X · Draw | 51.2% | 1.95 | 3.54 | 28.2% | +81.3% | |
| 2 · Chesham United | 19.3% | 5.18 | 3.04 | 32.9% | -41.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X pick | 80.7% | 1.24 | 1.27 | 78.7% | +2.5% | |
| X2 | 70.5% | 1.42 | 1.64 | 61.0% | +15.6% | |
| 12 | 48.8% | 2.05 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -41.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Bedford Town | 60.4% | 1.65 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Chesham United | 39.6% | 2.53 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.0% | 1.28 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -8.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.0% | 4.55 | 4.05 | 24.7% | -11.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55.3% | 1.81 | 1.66 | 60.2% | -8.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 44.7% | 2.23 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -8.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 33.2% | 3.01 | 2.69 | 37.2% | -10.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 66.8% | 1.50 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -9.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 60.1% | 1.66 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -5.6% | |
| BTTS no | 39.9% | 2.51 | 2.19 | 45.7% | -12.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 32.9% | 3.04 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.5% | 2.47 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 26.6% | 3.75 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.807 × 1.27 − 1 = +0.025 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.092 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Bedford Town | Chesham United |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWDDL | LDLLLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 0-2-4 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 0.33 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Bedford Town ahead at 29%, against 19% for Chesham United and 51% for the draw.
Form
Bedford Town, last six: L W W D D L – two wins in total. Latest: 0–3 at home to Macclesfield. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match.
Chesham United, last six: L D L L L D – zero wins in total. Latest: 0–1 away at Ebbsfleet United. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Bedford Town 1.56 · Chesham United 1.33 · total 2.89. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 55%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Bedford Town or draw, probability 81%, odds 1.27 v fair 1.24. Most probable score: Bedford Town 1–1 Chesham United. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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BuxtonFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Bedford Town vs Chesham United?
The Model pick is Bedford Town or draw with a model probability of 81, priced around 1.27 by the bookmakers.
What are the Bedford Town v Chesham United probabilities?
Bedford Town win 29%, draw 51%, Chesham United win 19%.
What is the most probable score for Bedford Town vs Chesham United?
Bedford Town 1–1 Chesham United is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Bedford Town vs Chesham United?
Bedford Town 1.56, Chesham United 1.33 – over 2.5 at 55%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Bedford Town vs Chesham United?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at The Eyrie – FA Trophy.