- λ home
- 1.36
- λ away
- 1.67
- Σλ total
- 3.03
- P(over 2.5)
- 58%
- P(BTTS)
- 65%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.0%
Chorley vs Buxton prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Chorley 33% · draw 20% · Buxton 46%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Chorley v Buxton: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Chorley v Buxton are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.03 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | 3.03 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.36, λaway = 1.67
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 31.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 44.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.0%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Chorley | – | 32.0% | 34.5% | 33.1% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 25.2% | 20.5% |
| 2 Buxton | – | 51.0% | 40.3% | 46.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Chorley | 33.1% | 3.03 | 2.59 | 38.6% | -14.4% | |
| X · Draw | 20.5% | 4.89 | 3.54 | 28.2% | -27.6% | |
| 2 · Buxton | 46.5% | 2.15 | 2.22 | 45.0% | +3.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 53.5% | 1.87 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -19.7% | |
| X2 | 66.9% | 1.49 | 1.37 | 73.0% | -8.3% | |
| 12 | 79.5% | 1.26 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -4.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Chorley | 41.6% | 2.41 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Buxton | 58.4% | 1.71 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 80.1% | 1.25 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -8.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 19.9% | 5.02 | 4.45 | 22.5% | -11.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58.4% | 1.71 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -8.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 41.6% | 2.40 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -8.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 36.4% | 2.75 | 2.46 | 40.7% | -10.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 63.6% | 1.57 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -9.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 65.0% | 1.54 | 1.49 | 67.1% | -3.2% | |
| BTTS no | 35.0% | 2.85 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -16.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 26.2% | 3.82 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.3% | 2.54 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 34.5% | 2.90 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.650 × 1.49 − 1 = -0.032 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Chorley | Buxton |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLWLDW | DWWWDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 2.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 83% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 46% against 33%.
Form
Sequence for Chorley: L L W L D W, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–2 at home to Hereford. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Sequence for Buxton: D W W W D L, so three victories in six. Latest: 2–2 away at Scarborough Athletic. 2.3 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Last meeting (Oct 2026): Chorley 2–3 Buxton. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Chorley 1.36 · Buxton 1.67 · total 3.03. High total: over 2.5 58%, BTTS 65%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Both teams to score, probability 65%, odds 1.49 v fair 1.54. Most probable score: Chorley 1–2 Buxton. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 24 Oct 2026Chorley2–3Buxton
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MacclesfieldFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Chorley vs Buxton?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.49 by the bookmakers.
What are the Chorley v Buxton probabilities?
Chorley win 33%, draw 20%, Buxton win 46%.
What is the most probable score for Chorley vs Buxton?
Chorley 1–2 Buxton is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Chorley vs Buxton?
Chorley 1.36, Buxton 1.67 – over 2.5 at 58%, BTTS at 65%.
What time is Chorley vs Buxton?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Victory Park – FA Trophy.