- λ home
- 1.48
- λ away
- 1.30
- Σλ total
- 2.77
- P(over 2.5)
- 52%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.0%
Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town prediction & xG model: Merthyr Town or draw
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Merthyr Town 28% · draw 52% · Harborough Town 20%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Merthyr Town v Harborough Town: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Merthyr Town v Harborough Town are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.77 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | 2.77 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.48, λaway = 1.30
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 41.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 33.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.0%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Merthyr Town | – | 17.0% | 42.8% | 27.8% |
| X Draw | – | 71.0% | 26.8% | 52.4% |
| 2 Harborough Town | – | 12.0% | 30.5% | 19.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Merthyr Town | 27.8% | 3.60 | 2.09 | 47.8% | -41.9% | |
| X · Draw | 52.4% | 1.91 | 3.34 | 29.9% | +75.1% | |
| 2 · Harborough Town | 19.8% | 5.06 | 2.93 | 34.1% | -42.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X pick | 80.2% | 1.25 | 1.29 | 77.5% | +3.5% | |
| X2 | 72.2% | 1.39 | 1.57 | 63.7% | +13.3% | |
| 12 | 47.6% | 2.10 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -41.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Merthyr Town | 58.5% | 1.71 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Harborough Town | 41.5% | 2.41 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 75.3% | 1.33 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -8.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 24.7% | 4.05 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -13.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52.4% | 1.91 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -8.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 47.6% | 2.10 | 1.93 | 51.8% | -8.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 31.1% | 3.21 | 2.83 | 35.3% | -12.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 68.9% | 1.45 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -8.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 59.5% | 1.68 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -3.6% | |
| BTTS no | 40.5% | 2.47 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -15.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 31.7% | 3.15 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.5% | 2.41 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 26.8% | 3.73 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.802 × 1.29 − 1 = +0.035 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.121 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Merthyr Town | Harborough Town |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDLLDD | LDLDWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-3-2 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 2.00 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Merthyr Town ahead at 28%, against 20% for Harborough Town and 52% for the draw.
Form
Sequence for Merthyr Town: W D L L D D, so one victory in six. Latest: 4–1 at home to Hebburn Town. Per match: 1.7 scored, 2.0 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Harborough Town have two wins from their last six (L D L D W W). Latest: 1–5 away at Leyton Orient. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Merthyr Town 1.48 · Harborough Town 1.30 · total 2.77. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 52%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Merthyr Town or draw, probability 80%, odds 1.29 v fair 1.25. Most probable score: Merthyr Town 1–1 Harborough Town. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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MacclesfieldFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town?
The Model pick is Merthyr Town or draw with a model probability of 80, priced around 1.29 by the bookmakers.
What are the Merthyr Town v Harborough Town probabilities?
Merthyr Town win 28%, draw 52%, Harborough Town win 20%.
What is the most probable score for Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town?
Merthyr Town 1–1 Harborough Town is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town?
Merthyr Town 1.48, Harborough Town 1.30 – over 2.5 at 52%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:00 WAT – FA Trophy.