- λ home
- 1.98
- λ away
- 1.92
- Σλ total
- 3.90
- P(over 2.5)
- 66%
- P(BTTS)
- 67%
- Modal score
- 1–1 7.7%
Darlington 1883 vs Bury prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Darlington 1883 v Bury: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 4–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 2.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Darlington 1883 v Bury are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (31 and 28 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darlington 1883 (home) | 1.66 | 1.03 | 0.87 | 1.49 |
| Bury (away) | 1.38 | 1.30 | 1.06 | 1.90 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.03 × 0.87 ≈ 1.49
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.39 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 5.00 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.98 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.90 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.98, λaway = 1.92
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 40.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 38.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 7.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Darlington 1883 | 30.1% | 16.0% | 38.9% | 25.6% |
| X Draw | 23.1% | 70.0% | 25.5% | 51.3% |
| 2 Bury | 46.8% | 14.0% | 35.6% | 23.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Darlington 1883 | 25.6% | 3.91 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -41.1% | |
| X · Draw | 51.3% | 1.95 | 3.50 | 28.6% | +79.6% | |
| 2 · Bury | 23.1% | 4.33 | 2.51 | 39.8% | -42.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 76.9% | 1.30 | 1.40 | 71.4% | +7.7% | |
| X2 | 74.4% | 1.34 | 1.47 | 68.0% | +9.4% | |
| 12 | 48.7% | 2.05 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -41.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Darlington 1883 | 52.6% | 1.90 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Bury | 47.4% | 2.11 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 84.6% | 1.18 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -3.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 15.4% | 6.50 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -33.4% | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 66.0% | 1.51 | 1.60 | 62.5% | +5.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 34.0% | 2.94 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -26.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 45.5% | 2.20 | 2.49 | 40.2% | +13.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 54.5% | 1.83 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -22.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 67.4% | 1.48 | 1.51 | 66.2% | +1.7% | |
| BTTS no | 32.6% | 3.07 | 2.32 | 43.1% | -24.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 33.9% | 2.95 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 33.9% | 2.95 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 32.3% | 3.10 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.660 × 1.60 − 1 = +0.056 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.094 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Darlington 1883 | Bury |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLLWLD | WWDLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 2.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 26 / 51 / 23% for home, draw, away.
Form
Darlington 1883 have one win from their last six (D L L W L D). Latest: 1–1 at home to Oxford City. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Bury have four wins from their last six (W W D L W W). Latest: 1–0 at home to Cleethorpes Town. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Darlington 1883 1.98 · Bury 1.92 · total 3.90. High total: over 2.5 66%, BTTS 67%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 66%, odds 1.60 v fair 1.51. Most probable score: Darlington 1883 2–2 Bury. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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What is the Winning Arena prediction for Darlington 1883 vs Bury?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 66, priced around 1.60 by the bookmakers.
What are the Darlington 1883 v Bury probabilities?
Darlington 1883 win 26%, draw 51%, Bury win 23%.
What is the most probable score for Darlington 1883 vs Bury?
Darlington 1883 2–2 Bury is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Darlington 1883 vs Bury?
Darlington 1883 1.98, Bury 1.92 – over 2.5 at 66%, BTTS at 67%.
What time is Darlington 1883 vs Bury?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Blackwell Meadows – FA Trophy.