- λ home
- 0.65
- λ away
- 2.20
- Σλ total
- 2.85
- P(over 2.5)
- 59%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 0–2 14.0%
Bourne Town vs Bromsgrove Sporting prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Bourne Town 10% · draw 17% · Bromsgrove Sporting 73%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Bourne Town v Bromsgrove Sporting: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Bourne Town v Bromsgrove Sporting are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.33 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.28 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.85 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.65, λaway = 2.20
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 9.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 17.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 72.9%
- Most probable score
- 0–2 · 14.0%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Bourne Town | – | 8.0% | 11.8% | 9.6% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 16.7% | 17.5% |
| 2 Bromsgrove Sporting | – | 74.0% | 71.5% | 73.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.118 → 11.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Bourne Town | 9.6% | 10.44 | 7.60 | 13.2% | -27.2% | |
| X · Draw | 17.5% | 5.73 | 5.35 | 18.7% | -6.6% | |
| 2 · Bromsgrove Sporting | 73.0% | 1.37 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -8.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 27.0% | 3.70 | 3.15 | 31.7% | -14.8% | |
| X2 | 90.4% | 1.11 | 1.01 | 99.0% | -8.7% | |
| 12 | 82.5% | 1.21 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -10.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Bourne Town | 11.6% | 8.62 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Bromsgrove Sporting | 88.4% | 1.13 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 80.1% | 1.25 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -11.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 19.9% | 5.03 | 5.20 | 19.2% | +3.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58.9% | 1.70 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -16.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 41.1% | 2.44 | 2.49 | 40.2% | +2.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 37.3% | 2.68 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -19.8% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 62.7% | 1.59 | 1.60 | 62.5% | +0.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 53.7% | 1.86 | 1.74 | 57.5% | -6.6% | |
| BTTS no | 46.3% | 2.16 | 1.93 | 51.8% | -10.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 10.8% | 9.29 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.0% | 2.70 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 52.2% | 1.92 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.627 × 1.60 − 1 = +0.003 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.006 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.1% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Bourne Town | Bromsgrove Sporting |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWDWW | WWWDWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-1-0 | 4-2-0 |
| Points per match | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 2.50 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Bromsgrove Sporting 73%, Bourne Town 10%.
Form
Bourne Town, last six: W W W D W W – five wins in total. Latest: 1–0 at home to Banbury United. Per match: 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Bromsgrove Sporting: W W W D W D, so four victories in six. Latest: 3–2 away at Leamington. 2.5 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Bourne Town 0.65 · Bromsgrove Sporting 2.20 · total 2.85. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 59%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection
Model selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 63%, odds 1.60 v fair 1.59. Most probable score: Bourne Town 0–2 Bromsgrove Sporting. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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MacclesfieldFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Bourne Town vs Bromsgrove Sporting?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.60 by the bookmakers.
What are the Bourne Town v Bromsgrove Sporting probabilities?
Bourne Town win 10%, draw 17%, Bromsgrove Sporting win 73%.
What is the most probable score for Bourne Town vs Bromsgrove Sporting?
Bourne Town 0–2 Bromsgrove Sporting is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Bourne Town vs Bromsgrove Sporting?
Bourne Town 0.65, Bromsgrove Sporting 2.20 – over 2.5 at 59%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Bourne Town vs Bromsgrove Sporting?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:00 WAT – FA Trophy.