- λ home
- 1.10
- λ away
- 2.58
- Σλ total
- 3.68
- P(over 2.5)
- 71%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 1–2 9.2%
Wellington Phoenix II vs Auckland City prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Wellington Phoenix II v Auckland City: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Wellington Phoenix II v Auckland City are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (7 and 7 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington Phoenix II (home) | 1.93 | 0.70 | 0.75 | 1.01 |
| Auckland City (away) | 1.67 | 1.14 | 1.27 | 2.43 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.93 × 0.70 × 0.75 ≈ 1.01
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.44 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.67 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.68 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.68 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.10, λaway = 2.58
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 14.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 16.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 69.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 9.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Wellington Phoenix II | 13.8% | 22.0% | 6.2% | 15.4% |
| X Draw | 18.3% | 15.0% | 13.3% | 14.3% |
| 2 Auckland City | 67.9% | 63.0% | 80.6% | 70.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.118 → 11.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Wellington Phoenix II | 15.4% | 6.51 | 14.50 | 6.9% | +122.6% | |
| X · Draw | 14.3% | 7.01 | 6.75 | 14.8% | -3.7% | |
| 2 · Auckland City | 70.4% | 1.42 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -21.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 29.6% | 3.38 | 4.60 | 21.7% | +36.2% | |
| X2 | 84.6% | 1.18 | – | – | – | |
| 12 | 85.7% | 1.17 | 1.03 | 97.1% | -11.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Wellington Phoenix II | 17.9% | 5.59 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Auckland City | 82.1% | 1.22 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 87.7% | 1.14 | 1.04 | 96.2% | -8.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 12.3% | 8.13 | 7.10 | 14.1% | -12.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71.1% | 1.41 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -9.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 28.9% | 3.47 | 3.14 | 31.8% | -9.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 51.3% | 1.95 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -10.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 48.7% | 2.05 | 1.93 | 51.8% | -6.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 53.6% | 1.86 | 1.81 | 55.2% | -2.9% | |
| BTTS no | 46.4% | 2.16 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -15.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 15.8% | 6.34 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 32.3% | 3.09 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 51.9% | 1.93 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.536 × 1.81 − 1 = -0.029 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Wellington Phoenix II | Auckland City |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLLLD | DDWWDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 3-3-0 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 2.33 |
| Goals against / match | 3.00 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Auckland City favoured on the road at 70% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage. Standings: Wellington Phoenix II 10th on 5, Auckland City 2nd on 13.
Form
Sequence for Wellington Phoenix II: L W L L L D, so one victory in six. Latest: 0–1 away at Ferrymead Bays. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match. No shut-outs in that run.
Auckland City, last six: D D W W D W – three wins in total. Latest: 2–2 at home to Birkenhead United. 2.3 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Wellington Phoenix II 1.10 · Auckland City 2.58 · total 3.68. High total: over 2.5 71%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 54%, odds 1.81 v fair 1.86. Most probable score: Wellington Phoenix II 1–2 Auckland City. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
National League National table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cashmere Technical | 8 | +19 | 16 |
| 2 |  Auckland City | 7 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 |  Birkenhead United | 6 | +6 | 13 |
| 4 |  Wellington Olympic | 7 | +5 | 13 |
| 5 |  Napier City Rovers | 7 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 |  Miramar | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 |  Auckland United | 7 | +2 | 8 |
| 8 |  Ferrymead Bays | 8 | -7 | 8 |
| 9 |  Eastern Suburbs | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 10 |  Wellington Phoenix II | 7 | -13 | 5 |
| 11 |  Auckland FC 2 | 7 | -16 | 1 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Wellington Phoenix II vs Auckland City?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 54, priced around 1.81 by the bookmakers.
What are the Wellington Phoenix II v Auckland City probabilities?
Wellington Phoenix II win 15%, draw 14%, Auckland City win 70%.
What is the most probable score for Wellington Phoenix II vs Auckland City?
Wellington Phoenix II 1–2 Auckland City is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Wellington Phoenix II vs Auckland City?
Wellington Phoenix II 1.10, Auckland City 2.58 – over 2.5 at 71%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Wellington Phoenix II vs Auckland City?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 02:00 WAT, at Fraser Park – National League National.