- λ home
- 2.20
- λ away
- 1.36
- Σλ total
- 3.56
- P(over 2.5)
- 67%
- P(BTTS)
- 65%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.4%
Miedź Legnica II vs ROW Rybnik prediction & xG model: Miedź Legnica II to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Miedź Legnica II v ROW Rybnik: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipMiedź Legnica II to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Miedź Legnica II v ROW Rybnik are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (29 and 17 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miedź Legnica II (home) | 1.72 | 1.39 | 1.06 | 2.53 |
| ROW Rybnik (away) | 1.26 | 1.24 | 1.11 | 1.72 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.72 × 1.39 × 1.06 ≈ 2.53
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 4.25 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.75 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.40 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.56 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.20, λaway = 1.36
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 56.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 23.1%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Miedź Legnica II | 55.2% | 63.0% | 47.1% | 56.3% |
| X Draw | 19.3% | 19.0% | 23.6% | 20.9% |
| 2 ROW Rybnik | 25.6% | 18.0% | 29.3% | 22.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Miedź Legnica II pick | 56.3% | 1.78 | 1.89 | 52.9% | +6.5% | |
| X · Draw | 20.9% | 4.78 | 3.78 | 26.5% | -20.9% | |
| 2 · ROW Rybnik | 22.7% | 4.40 | 3.04 | 32.9% | -30.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 77.3% | 1.29 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -1.9% | |
| X2 | 43.7% | 2.29 | 1.69 | 59.2% | -26.2% | |
| 12 | 79.1% | 1.26 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -7.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Miedź Legnica II | 71.2% | 1.40 | – | – | – | |
| DNB ROW Rybnik | 28.8% | 3.48 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 87.0% | 1.15 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 13.0% | 7.70 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 67.5% | 1.48 | 1.37 | 73.0% | -7.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 32.5% | 3.08 | 2.66 | 37.6% | -13.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 46.8% | 2.14 | 1.99 | 50.3% | -6.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -9.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 64.9% | 1.54 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -11.7% | |
| BTTS no | 35.1% | 2.85 | 2.73 | 36.6% | -4.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 43.2% | 2.31 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 34.9% | 2.87 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 21.9% | 4.56 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.563 × 1.89 − 1 = +0.065 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.073 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.8% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Miedź Legnica II | ROW Rybnik |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWLLW | LWWLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-3 | 4-0-2 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Miedź Legnica II ahead at 56%, against 23% for ROW Rybnik and 21% for the draw. Standings: Miedź Legnica II 6th on 26, ROW Rybnik 5th on 26.
Form
Miedź Legnica II, last six: L W W L L W – three wins in total. Latest: 0–3 away at Barycz Sułów. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.7 conceded.
ROW Rybnik have four wins from their last six (L W W L W W). Latest: 1–2 at home to Kluczbork. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Miedź Legnica II 2.20 · ROW Rybnik 1.36 · total 3.56. Goals expected – 67% for over 2.5 and 65% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Miedź Legnica II to win, probability 56%, odds 1.89 v fair 1.78. Most probable score: Miedź Legnica II 2–1 ROW Rybnik. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
III Liga Group 3 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 16 | +16 | 37 |
| 2 |  Sparta Katowice | 16 | +21 | 36 |
| 3 |  Odra Bytom Odrzański | 16 | +6 | 31 |
| 4 |  Zagłębie Lubin II | 17 | +5 | 27 |
| 5 |  ROW Rybnik | 17 | +7 | 26 |
| 6 |  Miedź Legnica II | 18 | +6 | 26 |
| 7 |  Górnik Polkowice | 17 | +2 | 25 |
| 8 |  Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 17 | +5 | 24 |
| 9 |  Barycz Sułów | 16 | +3 | 24 |
| 10 |  Goczałkowice Zdrój | 17 | -1 | 24 |
| 11 |  Kluczbork | 17 | -3 | 24 |
| 12 |  Stal Brzeg | 16 | +5 | 19 |
| 13 |  Stilon Gorzów | 17 | -4 | 18 |
| 14 |  Ślęza Wrocław | 17 | -10 | 17 |
| 15 |  Carina Gubin | 17 | -13 | 17 |
| 16 |  Warta Gorzów | 17 | -19 | 15 |
| 17 |  Rakow II | 16 | -11 | 13 |
| 18 |  Polonia Nysa | 16 | -15 | 13 |
More III Liga Group 3 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Miedź Legnica II vs ROW Rybnik?
The Model pick is Miedź Legnica II to win with a model probability of 56, priced around 1.89 by the bookmakers.
What are the Miedź Legnica II v ROW Rybnik probabilities?
Miedź Legnica II win 56%, draw 21%, ROW Rybnik win 23%.
What is the most probable score for Miedź Legnica II vs ROW Rybnik?
Miedź Legnica II 2–1 ROW Rybnik is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Miedź Legnica II vs ROW Rybnik?
Miedź Legnica II 2.20, ROW Rybnik 1.36 – over 2.5 at 67%, BTTS at 65%.
What time is Miedź Legnica II vs ROW Rybnik?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 12:00 WAT – III Liga Group 3.