- λ home
- 1.03
- λ away
- 1.79
- Σλ total
- 2.83
- P(over 2.5)
- 56%
- P(BTTS)
- 63%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.0%
Warta Gorzów vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra prediction & xG model: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Warta Gorzów v Karkonosze Jelenia Góra: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipKarkonosze Jelenia Góra to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Warta Gorzów v Karkonosze Jelenia Góra are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (24 and 30 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warta Gorzów (home) | 1.72 | 0.60 | 0.81 | 0.84 |
| Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (away) | 1.26 | 0.94 | 1.13 | 1.34 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.72 × 0.60 × 0.81 ≈ 0.84
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.18 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.56 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.05 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.83 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.03, λaway = 1.79
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 21.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 55.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Warta Gorzów | 23.0% | 21.0% | 25.2% | 22.7% |
| X Draw | 29.7% | 18.0% | 25.1% | 21.0% |
| 2 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 47.3% | 61.0% | 49.8% | 56.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Warta Gorzów | 22.7% | 4.40 | 3.54 | 28.2% | -19.5% | |
| X · Draw | 21.0% | 4.77 | 3.55 | 28.2% | -25.5% | |
| 2 · Karkonosze Jelenia Góra pick | 56.3% | 1.78 | 1.79 | 55.9% | +0.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 43.7% | 2.29 | 1.78 | 56.2% | -22.2% | |
| X2 | 77.3% | 1.29 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -8.1% | |
| 12 | 79.0% | 1.27 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -6.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Warta Gorzów | 28.8% | 3.47 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 71.2% | 1.40 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.7% | 1.27 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -11.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.3% | 4.70 | 4.55 | 22.0% | -3.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56.2% | 1.78 | 1.56 | 64.1% | -12.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 43.8% | 2.28 | 2.22 | 45.0% | -2.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 34.7% | 2.88 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -17.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 65.3% | 1.53 | 1.46 | 68.5% | -4.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 62.6% | 1.60 | 1.51 | 66.2% | -5.4% | |
| BTTS no | 37.4% | 2.68 | 2.29 | 43.7% | -14.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 19.5% | 5.13 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.2% | 2.49 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 40.3% | 2.48 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.563 × 1.79 − 1 = +0.007 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.009 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.2% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Warta Gorzów | Karkonosze Jelenia Góra |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLLLD | LDWDWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-1-5 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 0.17 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 2.67 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 67% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 56% against 23%. Standings: Warta Gorzów 16th on 15, Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 8th on 24.
Form
Sequence for Warta Gorzów: L L L L L D, so zero victories in six. Latest: 0–3 away at Zaglebie Sosnowiec. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.5 per match. No shut-outs in that run.
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra, last six: L D W D W L – two wins in total. Latest: 1–2 at home to Miedź Legnica II. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Warta Gorzów 1.03 · Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1.79 · total 2.83. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 56%, BTTS 63%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra to win, probability 56%, odds 1.79 v fair 1.78. Most probable score: Warta Gorzów 0–1 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
III Liga Group 3 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 16 | +16 | 37 |
| 2 |  Sparta Katowice | 16 | +21 | 36 |
| 3 |  Odra Bytom Odrzański | 16 | +6 | 31 |
| 4 |  Zagłębie Lubin II | 17 | +5 | 27 |
| 5 |  ROW Rybnik | 17 | +7 | 26 |
| 6 |  Miedź Legnica II | 18 | +6 | 26 |
| 7 |  Górnik Polkowice | 17 | +2 | 25 |
| 8 |  Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 17 | +5 | 24 |
| 9 |  Barycz Sułów | 16 | +3 | 24 |
| 10 |  Goczałkowice Zdrój | 17 | -1 | 24 |
| 11 |  Kluczbork | 17 | -3 | 24 |
| 12 |  Stal Brzeg | 16 | +5 | 19 |
| 13 |  Stilon Gorzów | 17 | -4 | 18 |
| 14 |  Ślęza Wrocław | 17 | -10 | 17 |
| 15 |  Carina Gubin | 17 | -13 | 17 |
| 16 |  Warta Gorzów | 17 | -19 | 15 |
| 17 |  Rakow II | 16 | -11 | 13 |
| 18 |  Polonia Nysa | 16 | -15 | 13 |
More III Liga Group 3 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Warta Gorzów vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra?
The Model pick is Karkonosze Jelenia Góra to win with a model probability of 56, priced around 1.79 by the bookmakers.
What are the Warta Gorzów v Karkonosze Jelenia Góra probabilities?
Warta Gorzów win 23%, draw 21%, Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win 56%.
What is the most probable score for Warta Gorzów vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra?
Warta Gorzów 0–1 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Warta Gorzów vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra?
Warta Gorzów 1.03, Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1.79 – over 2.5 at 56%, BTTS at 63%.
What time is Warta Gorzów vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 13:00 WAT – III Liga Group 3.