- λ home
- 1.56
- λ away
- 1.77
- Σλ total
- 3.33
- P(over 2.5)
- 64%
- P(BTTS)
- 67%
- Modal score
- 1–1 9.9%
Ślęza Wrocław vs Zagłębie Lubin II prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Ślęza Wrocław v Zagłębie Lubin II: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Ślęza Wrocław v Zagłębie Lubin II are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (31 and 29 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ślęza Wrocław (home) | 1.72 | 1.01 | 1.15 | 1.98 |
| Zagłębie Lubin II (away) | 1.26 | 1.14 | 1.19 | 1.70 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.72 × 1.01 × 1.15 ≈ 1.98
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.69 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.41 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.26 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.33 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.56, λaway = 1.77
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 34.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 42.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 9.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Ślęza Wrocław | 44.4% | 35.0% | 37.1% | 35.9% |
| X Draw | 22.2% | 16.0% | 24.6% | 19.6% |
| 2 Zagłębie Lubin II | 33.3% | 49.0% | 38.2% | 44.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Ślęza Wrocław | 35.9% | 2.79 | 2.40 | 41.7% | -13.8% | |
| X · Draw | 19.6% | 5.10 | 3.62 | 27.6% | -29.0% | |
| 2 · Zagłębie Lubin II | 44.5% | 2.25 | 2.33 | 42.9% | +3.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 55.5% | 1.80 | 1.45 | 69.0% | -19.5% | |
| X2 | 64.1% | 1.56 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -9.0% | |
| 12 | 80.4% | 1.24 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -5.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Ślęza Wrocław | 44.7% | 2.24 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Zagłębie Lubin II | 55.3% | 1.81 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 84.5% | 1.18 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 15.5% | 6.44 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 63.9% | 1.56 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -8.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 36.1% | 2.77 | 2.46 | 40.7% | -11.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 42.6% | 2.35 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -8.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -8.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 67.0% | 1.49 | 1.39 | 71.9% | -6.9% | |
| BTTS no | 33.0% | 3.03 | 2.63 | 38.0% | -13.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 28.7% | 3.48 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.2% | 2.69 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 34.0% | 2.94 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.670 × 1.39 − 1 = -0.069 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Ślęza Wrocław | Zagłębie Lubin II |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDWLLW | LLWLDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Zagłębie Lubin II narrowly ahead at 44%; Ślęza Wrocław 36%. Standings: Ślęza Wrocław 14th on 17, Zagłębie Lubin II 4th on 27.
Form
Ślęza Wrocław, last six: L D W L L W – two wins in total. Latest: 0–1 away at Odra Bytom Odrzański. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Sequence for Zagłębie Lubin II: L L W L D D, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–2 at home to Goczałkowice Zdrój. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): Zagłębie Lubin II 2–1 Ślęza Wrocław. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Ślęza Wrocław 1.56 · Zagłębie Lubin II 1.77 · total 3.33. Goals expected – 64% for over 2.5 and 67% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 67%, odds 1.39 v fair 1.49. Most probable score: Ślęza Wrocław 1–2 Zagłębie Lubin II. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 25 Apr 2026Zagłębie Lubin II2–1Ślęza Wrocław
III Liga Group 3 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 16 | +16 | 37 |
| 2 |  Sparta Katowice | 16 | +21 | 36 |
| 3 |  Odra Bytom Odrzański | 16 | +6 | 31 |
| 4 |  Zagłębie Lubin II | 17 | +5 | 27 |
| 5 |  ROW Rybnik | 17 | +7 | 26 |
| 6 |  Miedź Legnica II | 18 | +6 | 26 |
| 7 |  Górnik Polkowice | 17 | +2 | 25 |
| 8 |  Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 17 | +5 | 24 |
| 9 |  Barycz Sułów | 16 | +3 | 24 |
| 10 |  Goczałkowice Zdrój | 17 | -1 | 24 |
| 11 |  Kluczbork | 17 | -3 | 24 |
| 12 |  Stal Brzeg | 16 | +5 | 19 |
| 13 |  Stilon Gorzów | 17 | -4 | 18 |
| 14 |  Ślęza Wrocław | 17 | -10 | 17 |
| 15 |  Carina Gubin | 17 | -13 | 17 |
| 16 |  Warta Gorzów | 17 | -19 | 15 |
| 17 |  Rakow II | 16 | -11 | 13 |
| 18 |  Polonia Nysa | 16 | -15 | 13 |
More III Liga Group 3 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Ślęza Wrocław vs Zagłębie Lubin II?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 67, priced around 1.39 by the bookmakers.
What are the Ślęza Wrocław v Zagłębie Lubin II probabilities?
Ślęza Wrocław win 36%, draw 20%, Zagłębie Lubin II win 44%.
What is the most probable score for Ślęza Wrocław vs Zagłębie Lubin II?
Ślęza Wrocław 1–2 Zagłębie Lubin II is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Ślęza Wrocław vs Zagłębie Lubin II?
Ślęza Wrocław 1.56, Zagłębie Lubin II 1.77 – over 2.5 at 64%, BTTS at 67%.
What time is Ślęza Wrocław vs Zagłębie Lubin II?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 13:30 WAT – III Liga Group 3.