- λ home
- 1.15
- λ away
- 2.15
- Σλ total
- 3.29
- P(over 2.5)
- 62%
- P(BTTS)
- 63%
- Modal score
- 1–2 9.8%
Guerreros del Pacifico vs FC Santiago prediction & xG model: FC Santiago to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Guerreros del Pacifico v FC Santiago: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipFC Santiago to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Guerreros del Pacifico v FC Santiago are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (11 and 15 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guerreros del Pacifico (home) | 1.66 | 1.02 | 0.54 | 0.92 |
| FC Santiago (away) | 1.38 | 1.30 | 1.06 | 1.90 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.02 × 0.54 ≈ 0.92
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.83 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.48 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.14 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.29 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.15, λaway = 2.15
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 19.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 60.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 9.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Guerreros del Pacifico | 17.5% | 17.0% | 22.7% | 19.4% |
| X Draw | 23.0% | 18.0% | 24.3% | 20.6% |
| 2 FC Santiago | 59.5% | 65.0% | 53.1% | 60.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.108 → 10.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Guerreros del Pacifico | 19.4% | 5.16 | 3.98 | 25.1% | -22.9% | |
| X · Draw | 20.6% | 4.85 | 3.72 | 26.9% | -23.3% | |
| 2 · FC Santiago pick | 60.0% | 1.67 | 1.70 | 58.8% | +2.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 40.0% | 2.50 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -23.6% | |
| X2 | 80.6% | 1.24 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -6.5% | |
| 12 | 79.4% | 1.26 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -7.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Guerreros del Pacifico | 24.4% | 4.10 | – | – | – | |
| DNB FC Santiago | 75.6% | 1.32 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 82.4% | 1.21 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -7.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 17.6% | 5.68 | 4.70 | 21.3% | -17.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62.3% | 1.61 | 1.51 | 66.2% | -5.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 37.7% | 2.65 | 2.33 | 42.9% | -12.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 40.9% | 2.44 | 2.26 | 44.2% | -7.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 59.1% | 1.69 | 1.51 | 66.2% | -10.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 63.5% | 1.58 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -4.8% | |
| BTTS no | 36.5% | 2.74 | 2.36 | 42.4% | -13.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 19.1% | 5.25 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.1% | 2.77 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 44.8% | 2.23 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.600 × 1.70 − 1 = +0.020 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.028 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.7% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Guerreros del Pacifico | FC Santiago |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWDDLD | WWWWWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-3-2 | 5-1-0 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.67 |
| Goals for / match | 2.17 | 3.33 |
| Goals against / match | 2.33 | 0.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 83% |
| BTTS | 67% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 83% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 60% against 19%. Standings: Guerreros del Pacifico 6th on 18, FC Santiago 1st on 25.
Form
Sequence for Guerreros del Pacifico: L W D D L D, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–3 away at Guerreros. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average.
FC Santiago have five wins from their last six (W W W W W D). Latest: 4–0 at home to Halcones Negros. 3.3 goals a match in that spell. 5 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Guerreros del Pacifico 1.15 · FC Santiago 2.15 · total 3.29. High total: over 2.5 62%, BTTS 63%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: FC Santiago to win, probability 60%, odds 1.70 v fair 1.67. Most probable score: Guerreros del Pacifico 1–2 FC Santiago. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Liga Premier Serie A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Santiago | 12 | +20 | 25 |
| 2 |  Mineros de Fresnillo | 12 | +11 | 23 |
| 3 |  Acatlan | 12 | +3 | 23 |
| 4 |  La Tribu de Cd. Juarez | 11 | +18 | 22 |
| 5 |  Correcaminos UAT II | 12 | +4 | 22 |
| 6 |  Vaqueros Reynosa | 12 | +3 | 21 |
| 7 |  Guerreros | 11 | -2 | 15 |
| 8 |  Real Apodaca | 12 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 |  Atlético Saltillo | 11 | -10 | 11 |
| 10 |  Héroes de Zaci | 10 | -26 | 2 |
| 1 |  Dragones de Oaxaca | 12 | +18 | 28 |
| 2 |  Artesanos Metepec | 12 | +14 | 26 |
| 3 |  Acambaro | 11 | +17 | 23 |
| 4 |  Delfines Coatzacoalcos | 12 | +4 | 21 |
| 5 |  Halcones Negros | 12 | +6 | 20 |
| 6 |  Guerreros del Pacifico | 12 | +1 | 18 |
| 7 |  Real Refineros | 12 | -2 | 18 |
| 8 |  Calor de San Pedro | 12 | -12 | 16 |
| 9 |  Ciervos | 11 | -27 | 5 |
| 10 |  Cañoneros Marina | 11 | -38 | 0 |
More Liga Premier Serie A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Guerreros del Pacifico vs FC Santiago?
The Model pick is FC Santiago to win with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.70 by the bookmakers.
What are the Guerreros del Pacifico v FC Santiago probabilities?
Guerreros del Pacifico win 19%, draw 21%, FC Santiago win 60%.
What is the most probable score for Guerreros del Pacifico vs FC Santiago?
Guerreros del Pacifico 1–2 FC Santiago is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Guerreros del Pacifico vs FC Santiago?
Guerreros del Pacifico 1.15, FC Santiago 2.15 – over 2.5 at 62%, BTTS at 63%.
What time is Guerreros del Pacifico vs FC Santiago?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 02:00 WAT – Liga Premier Serie A.