- λ home
- 1.96
- λ away
- 0.93
- Σλ total
- 2.88
- P(over 2.5)
- 56%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–0 11.0%
Artesanos Metepec vs Correcaminos UAT II prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Artesanos Metepec v Correcaminos UAT II: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Artesanos Metepec v Correcaminos UAT II are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (15 and 12 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artesanos Metepec (home) | 1.66 | 1.00 | 0.84 | 1.40 |
| Correcaminos UAT II (away) | 1.38 | 1.02 | 0.56 | 0.79 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.00 × 0.84 ≈ 1.40
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.19 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.77 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.98 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.88 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.96, λaway = 0.93
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 61.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 17.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 11.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Artesanos Metepec | 50.2% | 61.0% | 59.7% | 60.5% |
| X Draw | 29.0% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 23.3% |
| 2 Correcaminos UAT II | 20.8% | 15.0% | 17.9% | 16.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.117 → 11.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Artesanos Metepec | 60.5% | 1.65 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -9.3% | |
| X · Draw | 23.3% | 4.29 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -6.7% | |
| 2 · Correcaminos UAT II | 16.2% | 6.16 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -18.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 83.8% | 1.19 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -7.0% | |
| X2 | 39.5% | 2.53 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -9.0% | |
| 12 | 76.7% | 1.30 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -10.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Artesanos Metepec | 78.8% | 1.27 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Correcaminos UAT II | 21.2% | 4.73 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.3% | 1.28 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.7% | 4.60 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 56.1% | 1.78 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -7.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 43.9% | 2.28 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -3.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 32.6% | 3.06 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 67.4% | 1.48 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 58.3% | 1.72 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -2.7% | |
| BTTS no | 41.7% | 2.40 | 2.04 | 49.0% | -14.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 44.5% | 2.25 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.9% | 2.57 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 16.6% | 6.02 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.583 × 1.67 − 1 = -0.027 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Artesanos Metepec | Correcaminos UAT II |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWLDDW | DWLWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-3-1 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 2.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 17% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Artesanos Metepec 60% to win. Standings: Artesanos Metepec 2nd on 26, Correcaminos UAT II 5th on 22.
Form
Sequence for Artesanos Metepec: D W L D D W, so two victories in six. Latest: 0–0 away at Vaqueros Reynosa. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Correcaminos UAT II: D W L W W W, so four victories in six. Latest: 2–2 at home to Delfines Coatzacoalcos. Scoring rate: 2.3 per match – well above average.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Artesanos Metepec 1.96 · Correcaminos UAT II 0.93 · total 2.88. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 56%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 58%, odds 1.67 v fair 1.72. Most probable score: Artesanos Metepec 2–1 Correcaminos UAT II. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Liga Premier Serie A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Santiago | 12 | +20 | 25 |
| 2 |  Mineros de Fresnillo | 12 | +11 | 23 |
| 3 |  Acatlan | 12 | +3 | 23 |
| 4 |  La Tribu de Cd. Juarez | 11 | +18 | 22 |
| 5 |  Correcaminos UAT II | 12 | +4 | 22 |
| 6 |  Vaqueros Reynosa | 12 | +3 | 21 |
| 7 |  Guerreros | 11 | -2 | 15 |
| 8 |  Real Apodaca | 12 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 |  Atlético Saltillo | 11 | -10 | 11 |
| 10 |  Héroes de Zaci | 10 | -26 | 2 |
| 1 |  Dragones de Oaxaca | 12 | +18 | 28 |
| 2 |  Artesanos Metepec | 12 | +14 | 26 |
| 3 |  Acambaro | 11 | +17 | 23 |
| 4 |  Delfines Coatzacoalcos | 12 | +4 | 21 |
| 5 |  Halcones Negros | 12 | +6 | 20 |
| 6 |  Guerreros del Pacifico | 12 | +1 | 18 |
| 7 |  Real Refineros | 12 | -2 | 18 |
| 8 |  Calor de San Pedro | 12 | -12 | 16 |
| 9 |  Ciervos | 11 | -27 | 5 |
| 10 |  Cañoneros Marina | 11 | -38 | 0 |
More Liga Premier Serie A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Artesanos Metepec vs Correcaminos UAT II?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.67 by the bookmakers.
What are the Artesanos Metepec v Correcaminos UAT II probabilities?
Artesanos Metepec win 60%, draw 23%, Correcaminos UAT II win 16%.
What is the most probable score for Artesanos Metepec vs Correcaminos UAT II?
Artesanos Metepec 2–1 Correcaminos UAT II is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Artesanos Metepec vs Correcaminos UAT II?
Artesanos Metepec 1.96, Correcaminos UAT II 0.93 – over 2.5 at 56%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Artesanos Metepec vs Correcaminos UAT II?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 23:00 WAT – Liga Premier Serie A.