- λ home
- 2.10
- λ away
- 1.69
- Σλ total
- 3.79
- P(over 2.5)
- 68%
- P(BTTS)
- 67%
- Modal score
- 2–1 8.4%
Real Refineros vs Atlético Saltillo prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Real Refineros 48% · draw 21% · Atlético Saltillo 32%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Real Refineros v Atlético Saltillo: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Real Refineros v Atlético Saltillo are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 4.48 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.22 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.79 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.10, λaway = 1.69
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 47.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 31.5%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 8.4%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Real Refineros | – | 50.0% | 44.7% | 47.8% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 25.5% | 20.6% |
| 2 Atlético Saltillo | – | 33.0% | 29.8% | 31.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Real Refineros | 47.8% | 2.09 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -4.5% | |
| X · Draw | 20.6% | 4.86 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -28.0% | |
| 2 · Atlético Saltillo | 31.7% | 3.16 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -5.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 68.3% | 1.46 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -11.1% | |
| X2 | 52.2% | 1.91 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -12.8% | |
| 12 | 79.4% | 1.26 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -3.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Real Refineros | 60.1% | 1.66 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Atlético Saltillo | 39.9% | 2.51 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 89.2% | 1.12 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 10.8% | 9.27 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 67.8% | 1.48 | 1.50 | 66.7% | +1.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 32.2% | 3.10 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -19.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 52.5% | 1.90 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 47.5% | 2.11 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 67.4% | 1.48 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -3.6% | |
| BTTS no | 32.6% | 3.07 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -18.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 37.9% | 2.64 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 34.2% | 2.92 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 27.8% | 3.59 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.678 × 1.50 − 1 = +0.016 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.033 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.8% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Real Refineros | Atlético Saltillo |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLDLL | WLLLLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 2.17 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% |
| BTTS | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Real Refineros 48%, draw 21%, Atlético Saltillo 32%. Standings: Real Refineros 8th on 15, Atlético Saltillo 8th on 11.
Form
Real Refineros, last six: W W L D L L – two wins in total. Latest: 3–1 away at Acatlan. 2.2 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Atlético Saltillo, last six: W L L L L D – one win in total. Latest: 7–2 at home to Ciervos. 2.0 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Real Refineros 2.10 · Atlético Saltillo 1.69 · total 3.79. High total: over 2.5 68%, BTTS 67%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Over 2.5 goals, probability 68%, odds 1.50 v fair 1.48. Most probable score: Real Refineros 2–1 Atlético Saltillo. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Liga Premier Serie A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Santiago | 11 | +20 | 24 |
| 2 |  Acatlan | 11 | +5 | 23 |
| 3 |  La Tribu de Cd. Juarez | 11 | +18 | 22 |
| 4 |  Mineros de Fresnillo | 11 | +11 | 22 |
| 5 |  Correcaminos UAT II | 11 | +4 | 21 |
| 6 |  Vaqueros Reynosa | 11 | +1 | 18 |
| 7 |  Guerreros | 10 | 0 | 15 |
| 8 |  Atlético Saltillo | 10 | -7 | 11 |
| 9 |  Real Apodaca | 11 | -7 | 9 |
| 10 |  Héroes de Zaci | 10 | -26 | 2 |
| 1 |  Dragones de Oaxaca | 11 | +16 | 25 |
| 2 |  Artesanos Metepec | 11 | +14 | 25 |
| 3 |  Acambaro | 11 | +17 | 23 |
| 4 |  Delfines Coatzacoalcos | 11 | +4 | 19 |
| 5 |  Halcones Negros | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 |  Guerreros del Pacifico | 11 | +1 | 17 |
| 7 |  Calor de San Pedro | 11 | -7 | 16 |
| 8 |  Real Refineros | 11 | -5 | 15 |
| 9 |  Ciervos | 11 | -27 | 5 |
| 10 |  Cañoneros Marina | 10 | -36 | 0 |
More Liga Premier Serie A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Real Refineros vs Atlético Saltillo?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 68, priced around 1.50 by the bookmakers.
What are the Real Refineros v Atlético Saltillo probabilities?
Real Refineros win 48%, draw 21%, Atlético Saltillo win 32%.
What is the most probable score for Real Refineros vs Atlético Saltillo?
Real Refineros 2–1 Atlético Saltillo is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Real Refineros vs Atlético Saltillo?
Real Refineros 2.10, Atlético Saltillo 1.69 – over 2.5 at 68%, BTTS at 67%.
What time is Real Refineros vs Atlético Saltillo?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 23:00 WAT – Liga Premier Serie A.