- λ home
- 2.24
- λ away
- 1.27
- Σλ total
- 3.51
- P(over 2.5)
- 67%
- P(BTTS)
- 68%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.5%
Bayswater City vs Sydney Olympic prediction & xG model: Bayswater City to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Bayswater City 62% · draw 14% · Sydney Olympic 24%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Bayswater City v Sydney Olympic: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Bayswater City v Sydney Olympic are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.63 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.41 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.51 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.24, λaway = 1.27
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 59.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 20.9%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.5%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Bayswater City | – | 72.0% | 49.0% | 62.3% |
| X Draw | – | 7.0% | 23.0% | 13.7% |
| 2 Sydney Olympic | – | 21.0% | 28.0% | 23.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.115 → 11.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Bayswater City pick | 62.3% | 1.60 | 1.83 | 54.6% | +14.1% | |
| X · Draw | 13.7% | 7.29 | 3.90 | 25.6% | -46.5% | |
| 2 · Sydney Olympic | 23.9% | 4.18 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -23.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 76.1% | 1.31 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -1.1% | |
| X2 | 37.7% | 2.66 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -36.0% | |
| 12 | 86.3% | 1.16 | 1.18 | 84.7% | +1.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Bayswater City | 72.2% | 1.38 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Sydney Olympic | 27.8% | 3.60 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 85.5% | 1.17 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -5.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 14.5% | 6.88 | 6.00 | 16.7% | -12.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67.2% | 1.49 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -5.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 32.8% | 3.05 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -9.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 47.5% | 2.10 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -9.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 52.5% | 1.91 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -5.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 67.5% | 1.48 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -5.5% | |
| BTTS no | 32.5% | 3.08 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -10.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 44.8% | 2.23 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 34.8% | 2.87 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 20.4% | 4.91 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.623 × 1.83 − 1 = +0.141 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.170 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Bayswater City | Sydney Olympic |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDWWWW | LWLLDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-1-0 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per match | 2.67 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 2.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Bayswater City at 62%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Bayswater City 1st on 10, Sydney Olympic 3rd on 3.
Form
Bayswater City have five wins from their last six (W D W W W W). Latest: 4–1 away at Marconi Stallions. 2.7 goals a match in that spell.
Sydney Olympic have one win from their last six (L W L L D L). Latest: 0–2 at home to Oakleigh Cannons. Per match: 1.2 scored, 2.0 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Oct 2026): Sydney Olympic 1–2 Bayswater City. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Bayswater City 2.24 · Sydney Olympic 1.27 · total 3.51. High total: over 2.5 67%, BTTS 68%.
Model selection
Selection: Bayswater City to win, probability 62%, odds 1.83 v fair 1.60. Most probable score: Bayswater City 2–1 Sydney Olympic. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 25 Oct 2026Sydney Olympic1–2Bayswater City
Australian Championship table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  South Melbourne | 4 | +5 | 10 |
| 2 |  Sydney United | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 |  Sutherland Sharks | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 |  Canberra FC | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 1 |  Wests APIA | 5 | +8 | 13 |
| 2 |  Broadmeadow Magic | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 3 |  Avondale | 4 | -2 | 5 |
| 4 |  Adelaide City | 5 | -8 | 1 |
| 1 |  Bayswater City | 4 | +5 | 10 |
| 2 |  Oakleigh Cannons | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 3 |  Sydney Olympic | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 4 |  Marconi Stallions | 4 | -5 | 2 |
| 1 |  Lions | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 2 |  Preston Lions | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 |  Wollongong Wolves | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| 4 |  South Hobart | 4 | -4 | 3 |
More Australian Championship predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Bayswater City vs Sydney Olympic?
The Model pick is Bayswater City to win with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.83 by the bookmakers.
What are the Bayswater City v Sydney Olympic probabilities?
Bayswater City win 62%, draw 14%, Sydney Olympic win 24%.
What is the most probable score for Bayswater City vs Sydney Olympic?
Bayswater City 2–1 Sydney Olympic is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Bayswater City vs Sydney Olympic?
Bayswater City 2.24, Sydney Olympic 1.27 – over 2.5 at 67%, BTTS at 68%.
What time is Bayswater City vs Sydney Olympic?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 09:30 WAT, at Frank Drago Reserve – Australian Championship.