- λ home
- 2.78
- λ away
- 1.15
- Σλ total
- 3.93
- P(over 2.5)
- 75%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 2–1 8.7%
North District vs Hong Kong FC prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
North District v Hong Kong FC: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 4–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for North District v Hong Kong FC are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (20 and 17 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North District (home) | 1.66 | 1.22 | 1.44 | 2.93 |
| Hong Kong FC (away) | 1.38 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 1.19 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.22 × 1.44 ≈ 2.93
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 4.12 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 4.00 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.87 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.93 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.78, λaway = 1.15
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 71.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 15.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 13.2%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 8.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 North District | 72.3% | 63.0% | 79.0% | 69.7% |
| X Draw | 15.2% | 23.0% | 12.8% | 18.7% |
| 2 Hong Kong FC | 12.5% | 14.0% | 8.1% | 11.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.120 → 12.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · North District | 69.7% | 1.43 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -21.2% | |
| X · Draw | 18.7% | 5.34 | 6.95 | 14.4% | +30.2% | |
| 2 · Hong Kong FC | 11.5% | 8.67 | 11.00 | 9.1% | +26.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 88.5% | 1.13 | 1.01 | 99.0% | -10.6% | |
| X2 | 30.3% | 3.30 | 4.30 | 23.3% | +30.1% | |
| 12 | 81.3% | 1.23 | 1.02 | 98.0% | -17.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB North District | 85.8% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Hong Kong FC | 14.2% | 7.05 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 89.6% | 1.12 | 1.03 | 97.1% | -7.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 10.4% | 9.58 | 8.20 | 12.2% | -14.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 74.6% | 1.34 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -9.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 25.4% | 3.94 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -11.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 55.6% | 1.80 | 1.64 | 61.0% | -8.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 44.4% | 2.25 | 2.08 | 48.1% | -7.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 61.6% | 1.62 | 1.65 | 60.6% | +1.6% | |
| BTTS no | 38.4% | 2.60 | 2.07 | 48.3% | -20.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 54.0% | 1.85 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 30.6% | 3.27 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.4% | 6.50 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.616 × 1.65 − 1 = +0.016 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.025 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.6% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | North District | Hong Kong FC |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDWWWW | WDLDLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-1-0 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 2.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 2.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 100% |
| BTTS | 67% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
North District at 70%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge.
Form
North District, last six: W D W W W W – five wins in total. Latest: 2–1 at home to Kowloon City. Scoring rate: 2.5 per match – well above average.
Sequence for Hong Kong FC: W D L D L W, so two victories in six. Latest: 2–1 at home to Eastern. Per match: 1.5 scored, 2.3 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Mar 2026): Hong Kong FC 1–3 North District. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG North District 2.78 · Hong Kong FC 1.15 · total 3.93. High total: over 2.5 75%, BTTS 62%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 62%, odds 1.65 v fair 1.62. Most probable score: North District 2–1 Hong Kong FC. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 8 Mar 2026Hong Kong FC1–3North District
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for North District vs Hong Kong FC?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.65 by the bookmakers.
What are the North District v Hong Kong FC probabilities?
North District win 70%, draw 19%, Hong Kong FC win 12%.
What is the most probable score for North District vs Hong Kong FC?
North District 2–1 Hong Kong FC is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for North District vs Hong Kong FC?
North District 2.78, Hong Kong FC 1.15 – over 2.5 at 75%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is North District vs Hong Kong FC?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 08:00 WAT – League Cup.