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Result · Sunday 15 November 2026

Home Win Tips tomorrow

Sunday 15 November: 117 home wins tips on the board, with an average chance of 61%. Strongest: Finland vs San Marino, Finland to win at 87%.

Tips by · Winning Arena analystModel refreshed 14 Nov 2026, 04:39 WAT · Every pick graded in the prediction archive

Home teams with at least a 50% chance of winning. Sorted by probability; tap a match for its score grid.

Top home wins tips

First Amateur Division No. 2

Roeselare DaiselvsHarelbeke

Our tip1
Odds1.16
Chance76%fair 1.32

Roeselare Daisel expected to outscore them 2.51 to 0.69. Roeselare Daisel form: DWW (W2 D1 L0); Harelbeke arrive after a defeat (LWL). At 1.16 the price is under fair (1.32) – better as part of a slip than alone.

Match page
Damallsvenskan No. 4

Häcken WvsPiteå W

Our tip1
Odds1.22
Chance73%fair 1.37

Häcken W win 73% of the time on our numbers. Häcken W form: DDWD (W1 D3 L0); Piteå W form: DLW (W1 D1 L1). A short price: 1.22 against fair odds of 1.37.

Match page

More tips

Sun 15 Nov SpeziaVado 2.130.60 73179 5550 Arena tip173%@1.25EV -9%
Sun 15 Nov TSC Backa TopolaJedinstvo Ub 2.490.78 72207 6550 Arena tip172%@1.19EV -14%
Sun 15 Nov AFC LeopardsMombasa Elite 1.340.21 70229 3242 Arena tip170%@1.44EV +0%
Sun 15 Nov Tigres UANL WPumas UNAM W 2.671.01 711910 7061 Arena tip171%@1.28EV -9%
Sun 15 Nov OH Leuven WGenk W 2.180.72 702010 5955 Arena tip170%@1.18EV -17%
Sun 15 Nov CroatiaCzech Republic 2.320.97 681815 6061 Arena tip168%@1.53EV +4%

All home wins tips

KenyaFKF Premier LeaguexG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV

Sun 15 Nov Kenya PolicePosta Rangers FC 1.460.44 642412 3436 Arena tip164%@1.75EV +12%

EuropeUEFA Nations LeaguexG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV

Sun 15 Nov SpainEngland 2.501.09 662113 6463 Arena tip166%@1.73EV +15%

ArgentinaPrimera NacionalxG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV

Sun 15 Nov Gimnasia JujuyAlmirante Brown 1.590.61 632116 3747 Arena tip163%@1.85EV +17%
Sun 15 Nov Deportivo MoronColegiales 1.400.65 562618 3245 Arena tip156%@1.90EV +7%

GuatemalaLiga NacionalxG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV

Sun 15 Nov ComunicacionesCobán Imperial 1.810.93 582319 5156 Arena tip158%@1.68EV -3%

New-ZealandNational League NationalxG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV

Sun 15 Nov Cashmere TechnicalWellington Olympic 2.351.31 641323 6968 Arena tip164%@1.83EV +17%
Sun 15 Nov Napier City RoversFerrymead Bays 2.211.21 631523 6958 Arena tip163%@1.46EV -8%

El-SalvadorPrimera DivisionxG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV

Sun 15 Nov InterCacahuatique 1.630.94 552124 4956 Arena tip155%@1.89EV +5%

JapanJ3 LeaguexG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV

Sun 15 Nov Kagoshima UnitedGainare Tottori 2.100.89 681518 5850 Arena tip168%@1.32EV -11%
Sun 15 Nov FC RyukyuKochi United 1.871.00 611623 5457 Arena tip161%@1.94EV +18%

AustraliaA League WomenxG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV

Sun 15 Nov Canberra United WBrisbane Roar FC W 2.081.04 621919 6061 Arena tip162%@1.69EV +5%

AustraliaAustralian ChampionshipxG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV

Sun 15 Nov Sutherland SharksCanberra FC 1.631.10 551531 5853 Arena tip155%@1.42EV -22%

JapanJ2 LeaguexG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV

Sun 15 Nov Vegalta SendaiBlaublitz Akita 1.820.73 632314 4853 Arena tip163%@1.56EV -2%
Sun 15 Nov Kataller ToyamaTokushima Vortis 1.850.74 632413 5155 Arena tip163%@1.76EV +10%

RussiaFirst LeaguexG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV

Sun 15 Nov Ska-khabarovskLeningradets 1.910.75 632413 4949 Arena tip163%@1.70EV +8%
Sun 15 Nov FC SochiShinnik Yaroslavl 1.830.78 632116 4952 Arena tip163%@1.64EV +3%

Slovakia2. LigaxG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV

Sun 15 Nov Slovan Bratislava IIMalženice 1.951.02 592219 5759 Arena tip159%@1.77EV +4%

SpainSegunda División RFEF Group 3xG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV

Sun 15 Nov CiezaPeña Deportiva 1.760.70 642115 4653 Arena tip164%@1.72EV +9%
Sun 15 Nov Lorca DeportivaMallorca II 1.770.81 631819 4956 Arena tip163%@1.78EV +12%
Sun 15 Nov Deportiva MineraPoblense 1.600.66 602415 4143 Arena tip160%@1.66EV +0%
Sun 15 Nov AlcoyanoIntercity 1.760.85 592318 4757 Arena tip159%@1.81EV +7%

SpainTercera División RFEF Group 6xG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV

Sun 15 Nov Levante IIEldense B 1.530.77 601723 4546 Arena tip160%@1.53EV -8%

SpainTercera División RFEF Group 7xG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV

Sun 15 Nov MóstolesTrival Valderas 1.811.03 591724 5449 Arena tip159%@1.60EV -6%
Sun 15 Nov Unión AdarveLas Rozas 1.721.25 511830 5253 Arena tip151%@2.29EV +17%

SpainTercera División RFEF Group 2xG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV

Sun 15 Nov CovadongaAstur 2.150.91 691318 6047 Arena tip169%@1.13EV -22%
Sun 15 Nov CaudalColunga 2.190.94 691418 6047 Arena tip169%@1.19EV -18%
Sun 15 Nov LangreoSiero 1.760.88 621622 5046 Arena tip162%@1.32EV -18%
Sun 15 Nov LealtadMosconia 1.490.94 541828 4447 Arena tip154%@1.77EV -4%

SpainSegunda División RFEF Group 5xG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV

Sun 15 Nov RSD AlcaláA Madrid III 1.970.80 642313 5454 Arena tip164%@1.62EV +3%
Sun 15 Nov Gimnástica SegovianaReal Ávila 1.790.89 592119 4958 Arena tip159%@1.88EV +12%
Sun 15 Nov NavalcarneroGetafe II 1.950.95 592516 5357 Arena tip159%@1.95EV +14%
Sun 15 Nov SS ReyesReal Madrid III 1.440.67 582320 3850 Arena tip158%@2.04EV +18%
Sun 15 Nov ConquenseGuadalajara 1.951.10 572321 5253 Arena tip157%@1.77EV +0%

SpainPrimera División RFEF Group 2xG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV

Sun 15 Nov IbizaFC Cartagena 1.840.85 612217 5055 Arena tip161%@1.75EV +7%
Sun 15 Nov Atlético Madrid IITeruel 1.990.94 612316 5758 Arena tip161%@1.48EV -10%

PolandIII Liga Group 3xG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV

Sun 15 Nov Sparta KatowiceOdra Bytom Odrzański 1.670.96 581626 5349 Arena tip158%@1.60EV -7%

Denmark2. DivisionxG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV

Sun 15 Nov NaestvedFA 2000 1.970.84 651916 5458 Arena tip165%@1.67EV +8%

BulgariaSecond LeaguexG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV

Sun 15 Nov Yantra 2019Ludogorets II 1.880.69 662013 4955 Arena tip166%@1.60EV +6%

Bosnia1st League FBiHxG1X2O2.5BTTSPick · EV

Sun 15 Nov VitezRadnik Hadžići 1.541.01 541630 5048 Arena tip154%@1.53EV -17%
Sun 15 Nov PosušjeStupčanica Olovo 1.531.07 521830 4647 Arena tip152%@1.85EV -4%

Home wins today in numbers

Sunday 15 November: 117 tips with an average chance of 61%. The strongest still to play: Finland vs San Marino (UEFA Nations League) – Finland to win, 87%. Most tips come from Italy Serie D Girone H (8), Spain Segunda División RFEF Group 5 (5), Spain Segunda División RFEF Group 3 (4). 49 of them are priced above our fair odds.

How home wins works

Home teams with a win chance of 50% or more today, strongest first.

Only a home win after 90 minutes pays.

When we tip it

The best combine a clear gap in ratings with a league where home advantage is strong.

Tips for this market

  • Home advantage varies a lot by league – see the team ratings.
  • Short prices need a real edge.
  • Late team news can change these numbers.

Where these numbers come from

Each team's expected goals combine our attack and defence ratings, a statistical goals feed and the total implied by the bookmakers' goal line. From those two figures we give every scoreline a chance, and every market is built from the same table – which is why the result, goals and BTTS tips for one match never contradict each other. Fair odds are 1 ÷ chance; any price above them is marked as value. The whole process is on how it works, and the full tables are on score grids.

Prefer combinations? See accumulator bets, the banker of the day or all markets.

Winning Arena tipster desk2 min read

Home win tips: where home advantage really counts

Home advantage is real, but it is smaller than it used to be and it varies a lot between leagues. This page lists today's strongest home win tips – the matches where our numbers give the home side a clear edge and the price still makes sense.

How home advantage is built in

Our ratings use each league's own average goals for home and away teams, so home advantage is measured rather than assumed. In some competitions home sides score noticeably more and concede noticeably less; in others the gap is small. A home win tip here means the home team's attack, the visitors' defence and that league's home edge all point the same way.

What makes a strong home tip

  • A clear gap in expected goals in the home side's favour.
  • A home team in form at home specifically – check the home record on its team page.
  • A visiting side that travels poorly or is stretched by a busy schedule.
  • A price that still beats our fair odds.

The traps

Big clubs at home are often priced too short, because so many people back them. A 1.25 home win needs to land 80% of the time just to break even. Derbies, relegation battles and end-of-season games also blunt home advantage – motivation can matter more than the stadium.

Other ways to back the home side

If the price is too short, try Asian handicap −1.5 for a convincing win, draw no bet for insurance against a draw, or double chance 1X if you are more confident the home side will not lose than that it will win.

Settlement

Settled on the 90-minute score. Every tip is graded in the prediction archive. 18+.

Worked example: a strong home side, short price

A home side with a 70% chance is priced 1.35 – fair odds 1.43, expected value 0.70 × 1.35 − 1 = −0.055. A bad bet despite a strong team. The same side at −1.5 on the handicap, with a 42% chance of winning by two or more, is priced 2.55 – expected value 0.42 × 2.55 − 1 = +0.07. If you believe in the home side, the handicap is the way to back it at this price.

Home win checklist

  • Price against fair odds first.
  • Home form, not overall form.
  • Handicap or draw no bet if the straight price is too short.

Quick answers

Is home advantage still important? Yes, but less than it was. It differs by league, which is why we measure it for each competition.

Why do home favourites lose so often? Short prices make their losses memorable – but they lose about as often as their chances say.

Should I avoid home favourites altogether? No – back them when the price beats our fair odds. The problem is never the team, only the price.

What about home underdogs? A home side priced as the outsider can carry real value, especially in leagues with strong home advantage.

Frequently asked questions

Are these certain?

No. A 65% home win still fails 35 times in 100.

Why 50%?

It is the point where a home win becomes more likely than not.

How are the home wins chances worked out?

We estimate the goals each team should score from its attack and defence ratings and the bookmakers' prices, give every possible score a chance, and add up the scores that win the home wins bet. Tips are listed from the highest chance down.

What does the percentage mean?

How often a tip like this should win. At 70%, expect roughly seven winners and three losers from every ten.

Where are past results?

On the Yesterday tab and in the prediction archive – every tip is settled on the 90-minute score and kept.