- λ home
- 1.57
- λ away
- 0.70
- Σλ total
- 2.26
- P(over 2.5)
- 48%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 1–0 16.3%
Sparta Katowice vs Odra Bytom Odrzański prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Sparta Katowice v Odra Bytom Odrzański: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 3.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Sparta Katowice v Odra Bytom Odrzański are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (27 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Katowice (home) | 1.72 | 1.19 | 0.64 | 1.31 |
| Odra Bytom Odrzański (away) | 1.26 | 0.75 | 0.60 | 0.56 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.72 × 1.19 × 0.64 ≈ 1.31
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.87 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.16 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.94 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.26 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.57, λaway = 0.70
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 58.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 16.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 16.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sparta Katowice | 53.7% | 64.0% | 58.7% | 58.2% |
| X Draw | 30.7% | 15.0% | 23.3% | 24.0% |
| 2 Odra Bytom Odrzański | 15.6% | 21.0% | 18.0% | 17.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Sparta Katowice | 58.2% | 1.72 | 1.52 | 65.8% | -11.6% | |
| X · Draw | 24.0% | 4.17 | 3.82 | 26.2% | -8.4% | |
| 2 · Odra Bytom Odrzański | 17.9% | 5.60 | 4.95 | 20.2% | -11.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 82.1% | 1.22 | 1.09 | 91.7% | -10.5% | |
| X2 | 41.8% | 2.39 | 2.16 | 46.3% | -9.6% | |
| 12 | 76.0% | 1.32 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -11.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Sparta Katowice | 76.5% | 1.31 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Odra Bytom Odrzański | 23.5% | 4.26 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 72.1% | 1.39 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -16.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 27.9% | 3.58 | 4.15 | 24.1% | +15.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47.8% | 2.09 | 1.63 | 61.3% | -22.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 52.2% | 1.92 | 2.10 | 47.6% | +9.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.3% | 3.66 | 2.56 | 39.1% | -30.1% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 72.7% | 1.38 | 1.40 | 71.4% | +1.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 54.8% | 1.83 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -8.5% | |
| BTTS no | 45.2% | 2.21 | 2.01 | 49.8% | -9.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 40.2% | 2.49 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 45.2% | 2.21 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 14.6% | 6.84 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.727 × 1.40 − 1 = +0.017 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.044 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.1% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Sparta Katowice | Odra Bytom Odrzański |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWWLD | WLWDDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 2.17 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Sparta Katowice ahead at 58%, against 18% for Odra Bytom Odrzański and 24% for the draw. Standings: Sparta Katowice 2nd on 36, Odra Bytom Odrzański 3rd on 31.
Form
Sequence for Sparta Katowice: W W W W L D, so four victories in six. Latest: 4–0 away at Górnik Polkowice. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average.
Odra Bytom Odrzański have two wins from their last six (W L W D D L). Latest: 1–0 at home to Ślęza Wrocław. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Sparta Katowice 1.57 · Odra Bytom Odrzański 0.70 · total 2.26. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 48%, BTTS 55%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 73%, odds 1.40 v fair 1.38. Most probable score: Sparta Katowice 1–0 Odra Bytom Odrzański. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
III Liga Group 3 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 16 | +16 | 37 |
| 2 |  Sparta Katowice | 16 | +21 | 36 |
| 3 |  Odra Bytom Odrzański | 16 | +6 | 31 |
| 4 |  Zagłębie Lubin II | 17 | +5 | 27 |
| 5 |  ROW Rybnik | 17 | +7 | 26 |
| 6 |  Miedź Legnica II | 18 | +6 | 26 |
| 7 |  Górnik Polkowice | 17 | +2 | 25 |
| 8 |  Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 17 | +5 | 24 |
| 9 |  Barycz Sułów | 16 | +3 | 24 |
| 10 |  Goczałkowice Zdrój | 17 | -1 | 24 |
| 11 |  Kluczbork | 17 | -3 | 24 |
| 12 |  Stal Brzeg | 16 | +5 | 19 |
| 13 |  Stilon Gorzów | 17 | -4 | 18 |
| 14 |  Ślęza Wrocław | 17 | -10 | 17 |
| 15 |  Carina Gubin | 17 | -13 | 17 |
| 16 |  Warta Gorzów | 17 | -19 | 15 |
| 17 |  Rakow II | 16 | -11 | 13 |
| 18 |  Polonia Nysa | 16 | -15 | 13 |
More III Liga Group 3 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Sparta Katowice vs Odra Bytom Odrzański?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 73, priced around 1.40 by the bookmakers.
What are the Sparta Katowice v Odra Bytom Odrzański probabilities?
Sparta Katowice win 58%, draw 24%, Odra Bytom Odrzański win 18%.
What is the most probable score for Sparta Katowice vs Odra Bytom Odrzański?
Sparta Katowice 1–0 Odra Bytom Odrzański is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Sparta Katowice vs Odra Bytom Odrzański?
Sparta Katowice 1.57, Odra Bytom Odrzański 0.70 – over 2.5 at 48%, BTTS at 55%.
What time is Sparta Katowice vs Odra Bytom Odrzański?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 12:00 WAT – III Liga Group 3.