- λ home
- 2.19
- λ away
- 0.94
- Σλ total
- 3.14
- P(over 2.5)
- 60%
- P(BTTS)
- 47%
- Modal score
- 2–0 10.4%
Caudal vs Colunga prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Caudal 69% · draw 14% · Colunga 18%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Caudal v Colunga: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Caudal v Colunga are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.20 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.09 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.14 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.19, λaway = 0.94
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 65.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.0%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 10.4%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Caudal | – | 64.0% | 74.9% | 68.6% |
| X Draw | – | 11.0% | 17.3% | 13.7% |
| 2 Colunga | – | 25.0% | 7.8% | 17.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Caudal | 68.6% | 1.46 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -18.4% | |
| X · Draw | 13.7% | 7.32 | 5.15 | 19.4% | -29.7% | |
| 2 · Colunga | 17.8% | 5.63 | 11.50 | 8.7% | +104.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 82.2% | 1.22 | – | – | – | |
| X2 | 31.4% | 3.18 | 3.58 | 27.9% | +12.4% | |
| 12 | 86.3% | 1.16 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -6.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Caudal | 79.4% | 1.26 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Colunga | 20.6% | 4.86 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 80.7% | 1.24 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -8.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 19.3% | 5.19 | 4.40 | 22.7% | -15.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60.1% | 1.66 | 1.54 | 64.9% | -7.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 39.9% | 2.51 | 2.27 | 44.1% | -9.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 39.0% | 2.56 | 2.28 | 43.9% | -11.0% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 61.0% | 1.64 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -8.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 47.0% | 2.13 | 2.08 | 48.1% | -2.2% | |
| BTTS no | 53.0% | 1.89 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -14.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 48.2% | 2.08 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.3% | 2.76 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.5% | 6.44 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.610 × 1.50 − 1 = -0.085 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Caudal | Colunga |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWDDD | LDLLDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-3-1 | 0-3-3 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 2.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Caudal at 69%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Caudal 5th on 18, Colunga 12th on 12.
Form
Caudal, last six: L W W D D D – two wins in total. Latest: 1–2 at home to Llanes. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Sequence for Colunga: L D L L D D, so zero victories in six. Latest: 2–3 at home to Langreo. Per match: 1.3 scored, 2.8 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Caudal 2.19 · Colunga 0.94 · total 3.14. High total: over 2.5 60%, BTTS 47%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Under 3.5 goals, probability 61%, odds 1.50 v fair 1.64. Most probable score: Caudal 2–0 Colunga. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Tercera División RFEF Group 2 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Covadonga | 10 | +15 | 23 |
| 2 |  Sporting Gijón II | 10 | +8 | 21 |
| 3 |  Lealtad | 10 | +10 | 20 |
| 4 |  Condal | 10 | +9 | 20 |
| 5 |  Caudal | 10 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 |  Gijón Industrial | 10 | +5 | 17 |
| 7 |  Mosconia | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 |  San Martín | 10 | -1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Praviano | 10 | +6 | 14 |
| 10 |  Langreo | 10 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 |  Siero | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 |  Colunga | 10 | -7 | 12 |
| 13 |  Avilés Stadium | 10 | -5 | 11 |
| 14 |  Llanes | 10 | -6 | 10 |
| 15 |  Ceares | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 |  Astur | 10 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 |  L'Entregu | 10 | -13 | 5 |
| 18 |  Andes | 10 | -13 | 3 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 2 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Caudal vs Colunga?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 61, priced around 1.50 by the bookmakers.
What are the Caudal v Colunga probabilities?
Caudal win 69%, draw 14%, Colunga win 18%.
What is the most probable score for Caudal vs Colunga?
Caudal 2–0 Colunga is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Caudal vs Colunga?
Caudal 2.19, Colunga 0.94 – over 2.5 at 60%, BTTS at 47%.
What time is Caudal vs Colunga?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 18:00 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 2.