- λ home
- 1.78
- λ away
- 0.65
- Σλ total
- 2.43
- P(over 2.5)
- 44%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 1–0 15.6%
Lealtad vs Mosconia prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Lealtad 64% · draw 23% · Mosconia 13%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Lealtad v Mosconia: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Lealtad v Mosconia are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.40 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.46 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.43 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.78, λaway = 0.65
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 64.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 13.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 15.6%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Lealtad | – | 74.0% | 50.3% | 64.1% |
| X Draw | – | 20.0% | 27.4% | 23.1% |
| 2 Mosconia | – | 6.0% | 22.3% | 12.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Lealtad | 64.1% | 1.56 | 1.77 | 56.5% | +13.4% | |
| X · Draw | 23.1% | 4.33 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -24.9% | |
| 2 · Mosconia | 12.8% | 7.79 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -48.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 87.2% | 1.15 | 1.15 | 87.0% | +0.2% | |
| X2 | 35.9% | 2.78 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -35.3% | |
| 12 | 76.9% | 1.30 | 1.23 | 81.3% | -5.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Lealtad | 83.3% | 1.20 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Mosconia | 16.7% | 5.99 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 69.2% | 1.45 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -8.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 30.8% | 3.25 | 2.88 | 34.7% | -11.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44.1% | 2.27 | 2.06 | 48.5% | -9.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 55.9% | 1.79 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -7.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 23.6% | 4.23 | 3.70 | 27.0% | -12.6% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 76.4% | 1.31 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -8.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 50.6% | 1.98 | 1.90 | 52.6% | -3.8% | |
| BTTS no | 49.4% | 2.02 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -13.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 44.8% | 2.23 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.5% | 2.35 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 12.7% | 7.86 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.764 × 1.20 − 1 = -0.084 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Lealtad | Mosconia |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWDWW | DLWLDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-1-0 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 2.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.00 | 2.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 0% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Lealtad at 64%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Lealtad 3rd on 20, Mosconia 7th on 16.
Form
Sequence for Lealtad: W W W D W W, so five victories in six. Latest: 1–0 away at San Martín. Per match: 1.8 scored, 0.0 conceded. 6 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Mosconia: D L W L D D, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–1 at home to Sporting Gijón II. Per match: 1.3 scored, 2.2 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Lealtad 1.78 · Mosconia 0.65 · total 2.43. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 44%, BTTS 51%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Under 3.5 goals, probability 76%, odds 1.20 v fair 1.31. Most probable score: Lealtad 1–0 Mosconia. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Tercera División RFEF Group 2 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Covadonga | 10 | +15 | 23 |
| 2 |  Sporting Gijón II | 10 | +8 | 21 |
| 3 |  Lealtad | 10 | +10 | 20 |
| 4 |  Condal | 10 | +9 | 20 |
| 5 |  Caudal | 10 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 |  Gijón Industrial | 10 | +5 | 17 |
| 7 |  Mosconia | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 |  San Martín | 10 | -1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Praviano | 10 | +6 | 14 |
| 10 |  Langreo | 10 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 |  Siero | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 |  Colunga | 10 | -7 | 12 |
| 13 |  Avilés Stadium | 10 | -5 | 11 |
| 14 |  Llanes | 10 | -6 | 10 |
| 15 |  Ceares | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 |  Astur | 10 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 |  L'Entregu | 10 | -13 | 5 |
| 18 |  Andes | 10 | -13 | 3 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 2 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Lealtad vs Mosconia?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 76, priced around 1.20 by the bookmakers.
What are the Lealtad v Mosconia probabilities?
Lealtad win 64%, draw 23%, Mosconia win 13%.
What is the most probable score for Lealtad vs Mosconia?
Lealtad 1–0 Mosconia is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Lealtad vs Mosconia?
Lealtad 1.78, Mosconia 0.65 – over 2.5 at 44%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is Lealtad vs Mosconia?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 12:00 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 2.