- λ home
- 1.61
- λ away
- 0.91
- Σλ total
- 2.52
- P(over 2.5)
- 48%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 1–0 13.0%
Lorca Deportiva vs Mallorca II prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Lorca Deportiva 56% · draw 24% · Mallorca II 20%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Lorca Deportiva v Mallorca II: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Lorca Deportiva v Mallorca II are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (10 and 10 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorca Deportiva (home) | 1.49 | 0.97 | 1.06 | 1.52 |
| Mallorca II (away) | 1.20 | 0.89 | 0.86 | 0.93 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.49 × 0.97 × 1.06 ≈ 1.52
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.45 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.45 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.67 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.52 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.61, λaway = 0.91
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 53.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 21.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 13.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Lorca Deportiva | 50.2% | 72.0% | 52.7% | 56.3% |
| X Draw | 27.2% | 16.0% | 26.0% | 24.1% |
| 2 Mallorca II | 22.6% | 12.0% | 21.3% | 19.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.117 → 11.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Lorca Deportiva | 56.3% | 1.78 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -4.3% | |
| X · Draw | 24.1% | 4.15 | 3.44 | 29.1% | -17.1% | |
| 2 · Mallorca II | 19.6% | 5.10 | 4.20 | 23.8% | -17.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 80.4% | 1.24 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -8.3% | |
| X2 | 43.7% | 2.29 | 1.89 | 52.9% | -17.4% | |
| 12 | 75.9% | 1.32 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -8.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Lorca Deportiva | 74.2% | 1.35 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Mallorca II | 25.8% | 3.87 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 72.3% | 1.38 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -10.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 27.7% | 3.61 | 3.34 | 29.9% | -7.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48.0% | 2.09 | 1.84 | 54.3% | -11.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 52.0% | 1.92 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -4.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.0% | 3.71 | 3.08 | 32.5% | -16.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 73.0% | 1.37 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -6.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 55.8% | 1.79 | 1.77 | 56.5% | -1.3% | |
| BTTS no | 44.2% | 2.26 | 1.89 | 52.9% | -16.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 38.5% | 2.60 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.1% | 2.32 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 18.5% | 5.42 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.558 × 1.77 − 1 = -0.013 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Lorca Deportiva | Mallorca II |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWLDWL | WLWLDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 83% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Lorca Deportiva 56%, draw 24%, Mallorca II 20%. Standings: Lorca Deportiva 8th on 13, Mallorca II 13th on 12.
Form
Lorca Deportiva have two wins from their last six (D W L D W L). Latest: 1–1 away at Valencia II. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Sequence for Mallorca II: W L W L D L, so two victories in six. Latest: 2–1 at home to Yeclano. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Lorca Deportiva 1.61 · Mallorca II 0.91 · total 2.52. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 48%, BTTS 56%.
Model selection
Selection: Both teams to score, probability 56%, odds 1.77 v fair 1.79. Most probable score: Lorca Deportiva 2–1 Mallorca II. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Segunda División RFEF Group 3 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Castellón II | 10 | +13 | 21 |
| 2 |  Deportiva Minera | 10 | +4 | 20 |
| 3 |  Ucam Murcia | 10 | +11 | 19 |
| 4 |  Cieza | 10 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 |  Castellonense | 10 | +5 | 17 |
| 6 |  La Nucía | 10 | +1 | 16 |
| 7 |  Alcoyano | 10 | -2 | 14 |
| 8 |  Lorca Deportiva | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 9 |  Intercity | 9 | +1 | 13 |
| 10 |  Atlético Baleares | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 |  Poblense | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 |  Orihuela | 10 | -5 | 13 |
| 13 |  Mallorca II | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 14 |  Yeclano | 10 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 |  Elche II | 10 | -9 | 11 |
| 16 |  Real Murcia II | 9 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 |  Peña Deportiva | 10 | -6 | 7 |
| 18 |  Valencia II | 10 | -7 | 7 |
More Segunda División RFEF Group 3 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Lorca Deportiva vs Mallorca II?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 56, priced around 1.77 by the bookmakers.
What are the Lorca Deportiva v Mallorca II probabilities?
Lorca Deportiva win 56%, draw 24%, Mallorca II win 20%.
What is the most probable score for Lorca Deportiva vs Mallorca II?
Lorca Deportiva 2–1 Mallorca II is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Lorca Deportiva vs Mallorca II?
Lorca Deportiva 1.61, Mallorca II 0.91 – over 2.5 at 48%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Lorca Deportiva vs Mallorca II?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 11:30 WAT – Segunda División RFEF Group 3.