- λ home
- 1.45
- λ away
- 0.77
- Σλ total
- 2.22
- P(over 2.5)
- 40%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 1–0 15.7%
Deportiva Minera vs Poblense prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Deportiva Minera 55% · draw 27% · Poblense 18%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Deportiva Minera v Poblense: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Deportiva Minera v Poblense are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (10 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportiva Minera (home) | 1.49 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 1.38 |
| Poblense (away) | 1.20 | 0.85 | 0.78 | 0.80 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.49 × 1.00 × 0.93 ≈ 1.38
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.18 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.11 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.37 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.22 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.45, λaway = 0.77
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 53.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 20.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 15.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Deportiva Minera | 49.6% | 65.0% | 53.9% | 55.0% |
| X Draw | 29.2% | 22.0% | 27.3% | 26.7% |
| 2 Poblense | 21.2% | 13.0% | 18.8% | 18.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.118 → 11.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Deportiva Minera | 55.0% | 1.82 | 1.66 | 60.2% | -8.7% | |
| X · Draw | 26.7% | 3.74 | 3.28 | 30.5% | -12.3% | |
| 2 · Poblense | 18.3% | 5.47 | 4.75 | 21.1% | -13.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 81.7% | 1.22 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -10.1% | |
| X2 | 45.0% | 2.22 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -12.2% | |
| 12 | 73.3% | 1.36 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -9.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Deportiva Minera | 75.0% | 1.33 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Poblense | 25.0% | 4.00 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 65.7% | 1.52 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -10.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 34.3% | 2.92 | 2.69 | 37.2% | -7.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40.2% | 2.48 | 2.17 | 46.1% | -12.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 59.8% | 1.67 | 1.59 | 62.9% | -5.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 20.9% | 4.79 | 3.88 | 25.8% | -19.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 79.1% | 1.26 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -6.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 53.6% | 1.87 | 2.05 | 48.8% | +9.8% | |
| BTTS no | 46.4% | 2.15 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -23.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 36.8% | 2.71 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 46.3% | 2.16 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 16.9% | 5.93 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.536 × 2.05 − 1 = +0.098 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.094 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Deportiva Minera | Poblense |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWWWW | WLLWDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-0-1 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 2.50 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 17% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Deportiva Minera ahead at 55%, against 18% for Poblense and 27% for the draw. Standings: Deportiva Minera 2nd on 20, Poblense 11th on 13.
Form
Sequence for Deportiva Minera: L W W W W W, so five victories in six. Latest: 0–3 away at Castellón II. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Poblense, last six: W L L W D W – three wins in total. Latest: 1–0 at home to Cieza. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Deportiva Minera 1.45 · Poblense 0.77 · total 2.22. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 40%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection
Model selection: Both teams to score, probability 54%, odds 2.05 v fair 1.87. Most probable score: Deportiva Minera 2–1 Poblense. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Segunda División RFEF Group 3 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Castellón II | 10 | +13 | 21 |
| 2 |  Deportiva Minera | 10 | +4 | 20 |
| 3 |  Ucam Murcia | 10 | +11 | 19 |
| 4 |  Cieza | 10 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 |  Castellonense | 10 | +5 | 17 |
| 6 |  La Nucía | 10 | +1 | 16 |
| 7 |  Alcoyano | 10 | -2 | 14 |
| 8 |  Lorca Deportiva | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 9 |  Intercity | 9 | +1 | 13 |
| 10 |  Atlético Baleares | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 |  Poblense | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 |  Orihuela | 10 | -5 | 13 |
| 13 |  Mallorca II | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 14 |  Yeclano | 10 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 |  Elche II | 10 | -9 | 11 |
| 16 |  Real Murcia II | 9 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 |  Peña Deportiva | 10 | -6 | 7 |
| 18 |  Valencia II | 10 | -7 | 7 |
More Segunda División RFEF Group 3 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Deportiva Minera vs Poblense?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 54, priced around 2.05 by the bookmakers.
What are the Deportiva Minera v Poblense probabilities?
Deportiva Minera win 55%, draw 27%, Poblense win 18%.
What is the most probable score for Deportiva Minera vs Poblense?
Deportiva Minera 2–1 Poblense is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Deportiva Minera vs Poblense?
Deportiva Minera 1.45, Poblense 0.77 – over 2.5 at 40%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Deportiva Minera vs Poblense?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 11:30 WAT – Segunda División RFEF Group 3.