- λ home
- 1.11
- λ away
- 2.11
- Σλ total
- 3.21
- P(over 2.5)
- 58%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 1–2 9.9%
Real Murcia II vs Ucam Murcia prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Real Murcia II 18% · draw 23% · Ucam Murcia 59%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Real Murcia II v Ucam Murcia: what are you seeing?
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How the numbers for Real Murcia II v Ucam Murcia are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (9 and 9 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Murcia II (home) | 1.49 | 0.87 | 0.94 | 1.22 |
| Ucam Murcia (away) | 1.20 | 1.47 | 1.30 | 2.30 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.49 × 0.87 × 0.94 ≈ 1.22
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.51 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.11 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.85 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.21 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.11, λaway = 2.11
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 19.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 60.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 9.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Real Murcia II | 19.0% | 10.0% | 20.8% | 17.7% |
| X Draw | 20.1% | 23.0% | 25.4% | 23.0% |
| 2 Ucam Murcia | 60.9% | 67.0% | 53.8% | 59.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Real Murcia II | 17.7% | 5.66 | 4.30 | 23.3% | -24.1% | |
| X · Draw | 23.0% | 4.35 | 3.52 | 28.4% | -19.0% | |
| 2 · Ucam Murcia | 59.3% | 1.69 | 1.66 | 60.2% | -1.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 40.7% | 2.46 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -20.7% | |
| X2 | 82.3% | 1.21 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -7.0% | |
| 12 | 77.0% | 1.30 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -7.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Real Murcia II | 22.9% | 4.36 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Ucam Murcia | 77.1% | 1.30 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 79.8% | 1.25 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -5.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.2% | 4.95 | 3.84 | 26.0% | -22.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58.3% | 1.71 | 1.69 | 59.2% | -1.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 41.7% | 2.40 | 2.01 | 49.8% | -16.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 37.3% | 2.68 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -2.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 62.7% | 1.59 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -13.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 62.0% | 1.61 | 1.66 | 60.2% | +2.9% | |
| BTTS no | 38.0% | 2.63 | 2.04 | 49.0% | -22.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 18.7% | 5.36 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.6% | 2.73 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 44.7% | 2.24 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.620 × 1.66 − 1 = +0.029 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.044 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.1% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Real Murcia II | Ucam Murcia |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDWDLW | DWLWWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 2.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Ucam Murcia narrowly ahead at 59%; Real Murcia II 18%. Standings: Real Murcia II 16th on 8, Ucam Murcia 3rd on 19.
Form
Sequence for Real Murcia II: L D W D L W, so two victories in six. Latest: 0–2 at home to Deportiva Minera. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Ucam Murcia have three wins from their last six (D W L W W L). Latest: 0–0 away at Orihuela. 2.5 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Real Murcia II 1.11 · Ucam Murcia 2.11 · total 3.21. Goals expected – 58% for over 2.5 and 62% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Selection: Both teams to score, probability 62%, odds 1.66 v fair 1.61. Most probable score: Real Murcia II 1–2 Ucam Murcia. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Segunda División RFEF Group 3 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Castellón II | 10 | +13 | 21 |
| 2 |  Deportiva Minera | 10 | +4 | 20 |
| 3 |  Ucam Murcia | 10 | +11 | 19 |
| 4 |  Cieza | 10 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 |  Castellonense | 10 | +5 | 17 |
| 6 |  La Nucía | 10 | +1 | 16 |
| 7 |  Alcoyano | 10 | -2 | 14 |
| 8 |  Lorca Deportiva | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 9 |  Intercity | 9 | +1 | 13 |
| 10 |  Atlético Baleares | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 |  Poblense | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 |  Orihuela | 10 | -5 | 13 |
| 13 |  Mallorca II | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 14 |  Yeclano | 10 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 |  Elche II | 10 | -9 | 11 |
| 16 |  Real Murcia II | 9 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 |  Peña Deportiva | 10 | -6 | 7 |
| 18 |  Valencia II | 10 | -7 | 7 |
More Segunda División RFEF Group 3 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Real Murcia II vs Ucam Murcia?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.66 by the bookmakers.
What are the Real Murcia II v Ucam Murcia probabilities?
Real Murcia II win 18%, draw 23%, Ucam Murcia win 59%.
What is the most probable score for Real Murcia II vs Ucam Murcia?
Real Murcia II 1–2 Ucam Murcia is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Real Murcia II vs Ucam Murcia?
Real Murcia II 1.11, Ucam Murcia 2.11 – over 2.5 at 58%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is Real Murcia II vs Ucam Murcia?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 16:00 WAT – Segunda División RFEF Group 3.