- λ home
- 1.38
- λ away
- 1.37
- Σλ total
- 2.75
- P(over 2.5)
- 52%
- P(BTTS)
- 61%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.1%
La Nucía vs Valencia II prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: La Nucía 40% · draw 21% · Valencia II 39%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
La Nucía v Valencia II: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for La Nucía v Valencia II are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.78 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.72 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.75 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.38, λaway = 1.37
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 37.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 36.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.1%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 La Nucía | – | 38.0% | 42.2% | 39.8% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 26.9% | 21.2% |
| 2 Valencia II | – | 45.0% | 30.9% | 39.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.118 → 11.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · La Nucía | 39.8% | 2.51 | 2.12 | 47.2% | -15.7% | |
| X · Draw | 21.2% | 4.72 | 3.32 | 30.1% | -29.7% | |
| 2 · Valencia II | 39.1% | 2.56 | 2.90 | 34.5% | +13.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 60.9% | 1.64 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -20.8% | |
| X2 | 60.2% | 1.66 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -6.6% | |
| 12 | 78.8% | 1.27 | 1.23 | 81.3% | -3.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB La Nucía | 50.4% | 1.98 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Valencia II | 49.6% | 2.02 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 74.8% | 1.34 | 1.23 | 81.3% | -8.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.2% | 3.97 | 3.42 | 29.2% | -13.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 51.5% | 1.94 | 1.79 | 55.9% | -7.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 48.5% | 2.06 | 1.88 | 53.2% | -8.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30.3% | 3.30 | 2.92 | 34.2% | -11.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 69.7% | 1.44 | 1.31 | 76.3% | -8.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 60.7% | 1.65 | 1.65 | 60.6% | +0.2% | |
| BTTS no | 39.3% | 2.55 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -19.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 29.3% | 3.41 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.8% | 2.39 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 28.9% | 3.46 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.748 × 1.23 − 1 = -0.080 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | La Nucía | Valencia II |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWLLLL | LDDDLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 2.33 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 33% |
| BTTS | 83% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – La Nucía 40%, draw 21%, Valencia II 39%. Standings: La Nucía 6th on 16, Valencia II 18th on 7.
Form
La Nucía, last six: D W L L L L – one win in total. Latest: 2–2 away at Castellonense. Per match: 1.2 scored, 2.3 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Valencia II have one win from their last six (L D D D L W). Latest: 0–2 away at Cieza. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG La Nucía 1.38 · Valencia II 1.37 · total 2.75. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 52%, BTTS 61%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Over 1.5 goals, probability 75%, odds 1.23 v fair 1.34. Most probable score: La Nucía 2–1 Valencia II. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Segunda División RFEF Group 3 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Castellón II | 10 | +13 | 21 |
| 2 |  Deportiva Minera | 10 | +4 | 20 |
| 3 |  Ucam Murcia | 10 | +11 | 19 |
| 4 |  Cieza | 10 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 |  Castellonense | 10 | +5 | 17 |
| 6 |  La Nucía | 10 | +1 | 16 |
| 7 |  Alcoyano | 10 | -2 | 14 |
| 8 |  Lorca Deportiva | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 9 |  Intercity | 9 | +1 | 13 |
| 10 |  Atlético Baleares | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 |  Poblense | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 |  Orihuela | 10 | -5 | 13 |
| 13 |  Mallorca II | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 14 |  Yeclano | 10 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 |  Elche II | 10 | -9 | 11 |
| 16 |  Real Murcia II | 9 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 |  Peña Deportiva | 10 | -6 | 7 |
| 18 |  Valencia II | 10 | -7 | 7 |
More Segunda División RFEF Group 3 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for La Nucía vs Valencia II?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 75, priced around 1.23 by the bookmakers.
What are the La Nucía v Valencia II probabilities?
La Nucía win 40%, draw 21%, Valencia II win 39%.
What is the most probable score for La Nucía vs Valencia II?
La Nucía 2–1 Valencia II is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for La Nucía vs Valencia II?
La Nucía 1.38, Valencia II 1.37 – over 2.5 at 52%, BTTS at 61%.
What time is La Nucía vs Valencia II?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 17:00 WAT – Segunda División RFEF Group 3.