- λ home
- 1.14
- λ away
- 1.47
- Σλ total
- 2.61
- P(over 2.5)
- 51%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.3%
Yeclano vs Castellón II prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Yeclano 35% · draw 25% · Castellón II 41%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Yeclano v Castellón II: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Yeclano v Castellón II are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (10 and 19 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yeclano (home) | 1.49 | 0.70 | 0.95 | 1.00 |
| Castellón II (away) | 1.20 | 1.43 | 0.88 | 1.51 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.49 × 0.70 × 0.95 ≈ 1.00
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.51 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.53 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.84 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.61 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.14, λaway = 1.47
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 29.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 44.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Yeclano | 24.6% | 35.0% | 43.2% | 34.8% |
| X Draw | 27.2% | 17.0% | 26.6% | 24.6% |
| 2 Castellón II | 48.2% | 48.0% | 30.2% | 40.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Yeclano | 34.8% | 2.87 | 2.07 | 48.3% | -28.0% | |
| X · Draw | 24.6% | 4.07 | 3.36 | 29.8% | -17.4% | |
| 2 · Castellón II | 40.6% | 2.46 | 2.96 | 33.8% | +20.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 59.4% | 1.68 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -24.0% | |
| X2 | 65.2% | 1.53 | 1.58 | 63.3% | +3.0% | |
| 12 | 75.4% | 1.33 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -8.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Yeclano | 46.2% | 2.17 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Castellón II | 53.8% | 1.86 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 74.9% | 1.34 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -10.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.1% | 3.98 | 3.82 | 26.2% | -4.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 51.2% | 1.95 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -13.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 48.8% | 2.05 | 1.99 | 50.3% | -2.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30.1% | 3.32 | 2.70 | 37.0% | -18.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 69.9% | 1.43 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -4.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 60.1% | 1.66 | 1.58 | 63.3% | -5.0% | |
| BTTS no | 39.9% | 2.51 | 2.17 | 46.1% | -13.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 23.9% | 4.18 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.9% | 2.33 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 33.2% | 3.01 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.601 × 1.58 − 1 = -0.050 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Yeclano | Castellón II |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLDDD | WLWWLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-4-2 | 4-0-2 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 2.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 83% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Yeclano 35%, draw 25%, Castellón II 41%. Standings: Yeclano 14th on 11, Castellón II 1st on 21.
Form
Yeclano, last six: L D L D D D – zero wins in total. Latest: 1–2 away at Mallorca II. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Castellón II have four wins from their last six (W L W W L W). Latest: 3–0 at home to Deportiva Minera. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Yeclano 1.14 · Castellón II 1.47 · total 2.61. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 51%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Both teams to score, probability 60%, odds 1.58 v fair 1.66. Most probable score: Yeclano 1–2 Castellón II. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Segunda División RFEF Group 3 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Castellón II | 10 | +13 | 21 |
| 2 |  Deportiva Minera | 10 | +4 | 20 |
| 3 |  Ucam Murcia | 10 | +11 | 19 |
| 4 |  Cieza | 10 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 |  Castellonense | 10 | +5 | 17 |
| 6 |  La Nucía | 10 | +1 | 16 |
| 7 |  Alcoyano | 10 | -2 | 14 |
| 8 |  Lorca Deportiva | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 9 |  Intercity | 9 | +1 | 13 |
| 10 |  Atlético Baleares | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 |  Poblense | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 |  Orihuela | 10 | -5 | 13 |
| 13 |  Mallorca II | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 14 |  Yeclano | 10 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 |  Elche II | 10 | -9 | 11 |
| 16 |  Real Murcia II | 9 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 |  Peña Deportiva | 10 | -6 | 7 |
| 18 |  Valencia II | 10 | -7 | 7 |
More Segunda División RFEF Group 3 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Yeclano vs Castellón II?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.58 by the bookmakers.
What are the Yeclano v Castellón II probabilities?
Yeclano win 35%, draw 25%, Castellón II win 41%.
What is the most probable score for Yeclano vs Castellón II?
Yeclano 1–2 Castellón II is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Yeclano vs Castellón II?
Yeclano 1.14, Castellón II 1.47 – over 2.5 at 51%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Yeclano vs Castellón II?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 17:00 WAT, at Campo de la Constitucion – Segunda División RFEF Group 3.